International demand for wheat since the CWB’s February Pool Return Outlook was good, with strong buying by Iran and other Middle Eastern importers.
Wheat values rose as Black Sea exports were hurt by winter weather and tightening supplies. This drop was partially offset by increased Argentine and Australian exports, the CWB said in the March PRO.
The rising export values and steady U.S. wheat futures led to solid U.S. sales during the month. The increased U.S. export pace is expected to continue to support prices until the arrival of new crop supplies.
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The outlook for 2012-13 remains negative because a large world wheat crop is expected, with the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasting production at 680 million tonnes. The IGC projects a slight reduction in 2012-13 ending stocks to 208 million tonnes from 211 million in 2011-12, but the overall number is still bearish.
The prospect for increased corn plantings in the United States and other exporting regions is also a concern for the wheat market.
Strong corn prices have supported wheat values and if corn markets drop in the new crop year, wheat will likely also fall.
