In the 1980s, the old Soviet Union often imported 20 million tonnes of wheat or more annually.
Today, the region exports about 20 million tonnes.
The transformation is the largest single change in the wheat market in the last 20 years.
What has become known as Black Sea wheat is a weight on global wheat prices. It has captured a large part of the largest wheat market in the world, Egypt, and is a force to be reckoned with throughout the Middle East, North Africa and Europe.
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Now, Russia has set its sights on Asia.
Last week, Russian exporters announced a plan to increase wheat exports to Asia sixfold to three million tonnes by 2011.
The plan includes negotiating directly with millers in Japan, Korea, Indonesia and the Indian subcontinent.
It will also require investment of $50 to $100 million in elevator and port upgrades on Russia’s Pacific coast.
Russian exporters say they want to supply Asia with quality, high protein wheat from Siberia.
These immediate goals are part of a long-term plan to raise annual exports of all grains to as much as 50 million tonnes in the next 10 to 15 years from 23 million in 2008.
The United States Department of Agriculture produced a report in 2008 on the prospects for Russia expanding wheat production in Siberia and elsewhere, which can be found at www.pecad.fas.usda.gov.
It shows production regions beyond the traditional zones near Ukraine and the Black Sea. There are important growing areas in southern Siberia, north of Kazakhstan (also a growing wheat exporter) and China. Grain from this region could be sent by rail to the port of Vladivostok on the Pacific coast, where it is a one or two day sail to South Korea, Japan, China and other parts of east Asia.
Russian companies are lobbying Japanese companies to provide money to build the needed port terminals and invest in production improvements in Siberian farms.
Rising Asian food demand holds opportunity for farmers, but there will be strong competition to fill that demand, not just among traditional players but also Russia.
