BANFF, Alta. – The chair of ConAgra International sees a positive future for agriculture, with a few bumps along the way.
In Truxton Morrison’s view, this is a time of rapid change with downsizing in some areas and rapid growth in others. During a career in the grain business that spans three decades, he’s watched the contraction and expansion of a trade that manages to feed twice as many people as it did decades ago.
“It’s incredible to think we feed 5.7 billion people today with the same area (of land) that fed three billion in 1960,” said Morrison.
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On the trade front, he predicts changes in dealings with countries like Mexico partly because of the North American Free Trade Agreement.
“NAFTA and GATT are statements to the world of the direction of free trade,” said Morrison at the recent Western Barley Growers Association convention.
“We’re going to have free trade in the world. We’re going to stumble and we’re going to have problems,” he said.
“In my lifetime I have hope we will see no more export subsidies ,and export embargoes will be gone.”
He expects Mexico will switch to more fruit and vegetable production, which they’ll send north. Canada and the United States will sell them more canola, feed grains, red meat and poultry.
Surprises in store
While he expects a good future, unexpected world events could throw up stumbling blocks.
A world recession or a surge of inflation could occur.
China could become a grain exporter or it might decide to be a big grain buyer as more Chinese leave the farm for the cities.
Russia could become a powerful country in 20 years and start selling grain to the world. In the meantime it needs grain and can’t afford to buy much.
Morrison describes ConAgra as a series of smaller companies with their own presidents who make their own decisions. In a company where sound financial performance is paramount, it has no policy manual and managers are allowed to make mistakes.
ConAgra had sales in 1995 of $33 billion and a profit of $1.8 billion. With operations in 27 countries including Canada, it employs 90,871 people. It has a diversified portfolio that includes seed and farm chemical sales, grain buying, milling, red meat and poultry processing, dairy products and brand-name food production.
