Can the World Trade Organization negotiations that collapsed in disagreement last week be revived?
If so, will the Doha Development Round begin where it left off, with the same proposals and compromises that were on the table when talks broke off July 29?
The overwhelming consensus from trade experts, ministers and lobbyists involved in the talks last week was that an hiatus of at least a year and likely more is now in the offing as elections in key countries render a quick resumption unlikely.
“I think it could easily be late 2009 or 2010 before the talks can restart, if then,” Canadian Federation of Agriculture president Bob Friesen said July 31 after returning from the WTO talks in Geneva.
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“Realistically, we do not expect any serious attempt to re-launch the Doha agenda – even if it remains intact – until 2009 or later,” Ottawa trade consultant and former negotiator Peter Clark said from Geneva.
And despite the assertion by WTO director general Pascal Lamy that member countries believe too much progress has been made in the past seven years and July’s intense nine-day negotiation to start from scratch, there is much skepticism.
“We met with the (Canadian) ministers after the collapse and they said if it restarts, it will start at zero,” said Dairy Farmers of Canada president Jacques Laforge.
“Personally, I don’t see the use of extending this round. Maybe they need a five-year break to reconsider the differences that made this collapse.”
A decision to abandon what ground was gained in Geneva would be a relief to Laforge and other leaders of Canada’s supply managed sectors. Negotiators were debating a proposal that supply management protective tariffs be reduced by at least 24 percent and guaranteed access at low tariffs be at least doubled.
Exporters such as Alberta cattle producer Darcy Davis, president of the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance, said he would like to see negotiations begin again by next year and begin where they ended.
“There was a lot on the table that would benefit Canada.”
However, he wondered if that is possible because time will pass, elections will change personnel and issues that were dealt with by this year’s compromises could be bypassed by next year’s circumstances.
“I wonder if the solutions on the table this week will be relevant with the passage of time,” he said.
In a news conference after the negotiations collapsed, agriculture minister Gerry Ritz was just as skeptical about the prospect of picking up negotiations where they left off.
Japan, India, Brazil, the United States and Canada all could or will have elections that could change the government focus, he said. As well, officials involved in the latest talks could be gone by next year.
“So there’s a lot of balls in the air,” Ritz said.
“We’ll have to wait and see how they all play out.”
