Acreage and price predictions at this time of year are a little more reliable than the groundhogs that forecast spring weather.
But analysts warn they are early guesses, subject to much change.
“I kind of look at those supply-demand tables as a living document,” said Mike Jubinville of Growers’ Marketing Services.
Glenn Lennox said Agriculture Canada analysts talk to people in the industry across the country to get ideas of what farmers intend to plant. They also consider world supply and demand of grains and other projections for world prices in their analysis.
The department revises its projections monthly with updated information. Its numbers are used for other government programs such as crop insurance values.
“It’s more art than a science, trying to put down what would be a good projection for a seeded area, trying to second-guess what farmers are going to think,” said Lennox, a wheat analyst.
Statistics Canada’s first estimates of what farmers will plant comes out April 30.
