Two years ago when he took power as the new Liberal leader, Paul Martin was riding so high in public opinion polls that party strategists were gleefully speculating about an upcoming historic electoral majority.
At 65, Martin was musing about three elections and 10 years in power before retiring.
Now, in the midst of his second campaign in 17 months, he is fighting for his political life, heading a minority government with few predicting the stability of a majority anytime soon.
What happened?
“I think it is best summed up as a problem of sky-high expectations that could really not be met,” says Canadian historian John English, executive director at the Centre for International Governance Innovation.
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“He had been arguably the best finance minister in Canadian history or certainly the one who moved most successfully to be prime minister and that led people to expect a lot.”
English, briefly a Liberal MP and author of books examining prime ministerial legacies, knows a thing or two about high pre-office expectations that crash.
He is in the midst of writing a two-volume biography of Pierre Trudeau, who saw his public approval ratings tumble after taking office in 1968.
English also wrote a biography of Lester (Mike) Pearson, who won the Liberal leadership in 1958 buoyed by his reputation as a recent Nobel Peace Prize winner.
Pearson could never convert that into broad political popularity and in three elections as Liberal leader, lost one to John Diefenbaker and won two minorities.
In his biography, English describes the expectations for Pearson when he was persuaded to leave the public service to join the Liberal cabinet.
He was called the Liberal’s golden boy, even by Conservative newspapers.
“The luster would eventually dim but in those days as a nation long bashful left its North American corner to take its place at the centre of the ring, Mike Pearson won the crowd’s cheers.”
English says voters almost always become jaded with a politician they have elevated.
“There always is a tumble and once it starts, it sometimes can take on a life of its own.”
In Martin’s case, there are clear factors at play.
The image of a decisive finance minister has been replaced by the image of an indecisive prime minister.
“But we have to realize that for various reasons, he only won a minority mandate and minority governments require the kind of negotiations and caution that can make leaders look indecisive,” English said.
And there also were the expectations for dramatic change that Martin himself raised as he campaigned for the Liberal leadership Ñ change that has not always materialized.
As an example, he promised farmers he would revolutionize the way Ottawa deals with the sector and in a July 2003 letter to Canadian Federation of Agriculture president Bob Friesen, he promised to work directly with farm organizations “to take all action reasonably possible to secure the industry’s future.”
In the two years since he took office, there have been few direct meetings between Martin and farm groups and CFA requests for a meeting with the prime minister have not yet materialized.
“I have met with the prime minister as part of a larger group of farm leaders but we think it is important that he also meet directly with a national organization like ours and that has not yet happened,” Friesen said. “We will continue to ask for that meeting.”
Despite his at least partial fall from grace, Martin recently passed a minor prime ministerial milestone. On Dec. 19, Canada’s 21st prime minister spent his 738th day in office, making him the 13th longest serving prime minister.
It will take him almost three more years in office to pass the next longevity hurdle Ñ Alexander Mackenzie’s 1,797 days in 1873-1878.
