John Shepherd, a retired auto worker who moved to cottage country north of Toronto two years ago, was perplexed.
He had just spent five minutes talking to one of the star candidates in the election – Conservative candidate Lewis MacKenzie – and he liked what he had heard. Yet he cannot decide how to vote, despite his conservative views.
He doesn’t like the Liberals “but I don’t see an alternative.” He thought MacKenzie was straightforward but he doesn’t trust the Conservatives, based on their tax-and-spend record.
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Reform? “They’re just old Socreds, aren’t they? Funny money and all that.”
So will he decide to stay home June 2? “No way. I always vote. It’s my right.”
The pollsters and political strategists don’t call voters like Shepherd confused. They call them “undecided”.
Whatever the label, he is a small part of a much bigger puzzle for the politicians in this election: what leads uncommitted voters to make up their minds?
All sides report a more volatile electorate than usual. Like consumers of all commodities, political consumers have become fragmented niche markets.
There is more information these days, more voter cynicism, fewer ideological allegiances.
Some political organizers talk about waging 301 byelections with local campaigns rather than one national campaign.
So how do the politicians try to figure out the puzzle of the volatile voter?
Voters likely will recognize at least one of these approaches when politicians come calling:
- Tell voters what issues they should care about: This can be a dangerous tactic for a politician because it may come across as arrogance.
In rural Ontario, for example, Reform and Conservative MPs have been telling voters that Liberal gun-control regulations should be one of their big concerns but few voters seem to agree. Will voters resent the presumption?
It can also be a winning tactic, as Reform leader Preston Manning waged a long campaign in the West to make Conservative spending habits an issue and then was rewarded with 51 western seats.
- Live locally, vote nationally: Some politicians will stress their leader, their party’s grand plans and the big picture.
Star candidate MacKenzie, of United Nations peacekeeping fame, epitomizes this. Relatively new to his riding of Parry Sound-Muskoka, he is making national unity and leader Jean Charest the core of his political pitch.
“There are no local issues, just national issues with a local implication,” he says.
His opponents see it as a slip by an outsider but MacKenzie insists that is the reality. “Unemployment, education, unity are all national issues that have their particular impact here.”
- Live locally, vote locally: Andy Mitchell, small-town banker, MP in the last Parliament and MacKenzie’s opponent, reflects the opposite view. He believes an MP sees the nation through local sensibilities. “I built my reputation in Ottawa one local issue at a time.”
On June 2, voters will tell the politicians how successful they were at figuring out the puzzle.
