Darryl Albrecht is glad he no longer grows grain. Prices for cereals are in the doldrums and canola’s shine has been tarnished. Canola was once a mainstay for the Albrecht farm.
Darryl and his father, Walter, gradually weaned themselves off grain and canola production because of the high costs and low returns. Their farm is now devoted to raising cattle.
“Now that we look back, we should have maybe quit grain farming a year sooner,” said Darryl, who farms near Boissevain, in southwestern Manitoba.
The Albrechts raise 300 beef cows and may add to the herd. They also background their calves.
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Darryl said they have an abundance of feed stockpiled on their farm, enough to last their current herd for two years. With cattle prices high, he finds it tempting to expand the herd.
Similar stories are shared elsewhere in Manitoba about producers shifting land out of grain and into cattle production. There is a perception that the province’s beef cow herd is growing.
But that perception clashes with numbers gathered by Statistics Canada.
Rather than showing an increase in Manitoba’s beef cow herd for the past two years, Stats Can recorded a one percent decline for both 1998 and 1999. Judging by the department’s numbers, the herd was no bigger this July than it was a year earlier.
Janet Honey, who oversees market analysis and statistics for Manitoba Agriculture, takes those numbers with a grain of salt
She thinks the province’s beef herd has grown in the past couple of years, based partly on what she hears inside the cattle industry.
“There is no reason for the cattle herd to have decreased,” she said, pointing to the low cost of grains and the abundance of forages in Manitoba.
“Producers feel they can make more money from cattle than they can by putting a crop in.”
Wanda McFadyen, executive director for the Manitoba Cattle Producers Association, also believes the beef cow herd posted “slow but steady” growth during the past few years.
The exception was last year, when there may have been a slight decline, she said.
Not only does McFadyen believe Manitoba farmers are raising more beef cattle, she sees hints the growth will continue. Producers are keeping more of their heifers to expand herds, she said.
Saskatchewan appears headed in the same direction.
Doug Winsor, Saskatchewan Agriculture’s livestock policy analyst, expects the beef cow herd to start expanding soon in that province as well.
“I think the beef guys are on a roll here. Obviously at this point in the beef cycle, you can make a lot more money in cattle than you can in grain.”
Replacement heifers up
The number of beef cows in Saskat-chewan was hovering around 1.11 million head this summer. That was down one percent from a year earlier. But a telling sign was the number of replacement heifers on Sask-atchewan farms. That number was 199,000 head in July, up seven percent from 1999.
Anne Dunford of Canfax said the cattle industry here has followed the North American trend. When cattle prices slumped in 1996 and feed prices were high, producers started to trim their herds.
That trend continues, although Dunford expects a reversal to start soon.
Despite higher cattle prices, producers need money, land and feed to build their herds. And cattle do not multiply as quickly as pigs or poultry.
“The cycle takes time to evolve,” Dunford said. “We’re not chicken producers who can take it from A to Z in a week. It takes years.”
For producers, there is also the question of risk. If they buy cows and heifers to build their herds, will prices stay high long enough for them to recoup their investment?
It’s a question that lingers in the minds of producers like Darryl Albrecht.
“It looks positive right now, but there’s a beef cycle that goes up and down and I wish I knew when it was going to go down,” he said last week.
Meanwhile, the cattle industry has helped hike the farm cash receipts in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
Cattle cash receipts in Manitoba rose from $311.5 million in 1996 to $448.7 million last year.
In Saskatchewan, cattle cash receipts climbed from $623 million four years ago to $974 million in 1999.
Better cattle prices account for part of the rapid rise in cash receipts.
Producers also have been holding back their livestock longer before shipping them to market. That allows producers to pack more pounds onto their animals, which adds to the price paid at sale time.
