By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures couldn’t hang on to gains Friday, following the release of the July supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture.
The USDA raised its estimate on Canada’s 2024/25 canola crop to 20.0 million tonnes from 19.6 million in its June report.
More pressure came from declines in the Chicago soy complex, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil. Crude prices turnaround to slip back, which added more weight on to canola values.
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A broker cautioned that it’s highly unlikely that canola prices will climb significantly higher anytime soon. He pointed to what’s looking to be an ample Prairie crop this year, as well as the amount of the oilseed still held in farmers’ bins. He also noted sluggish canola exports and the growing gap between crush margins and canola prices.
The Canadian Grain Commission reported canola exports for the week ended July 7 reached 6.52 million tonnes but are 1.23 million behind those a year ago.
The Canadian dollar was relatively steady by mid-afternoon Friday with the loonie at 73.37 U.S. cents compared to Thursday’s close of 73.40.
There were 30,785 contracts traded on Friday, compared to the 38,235 contracts that changed hands on Thursday. Spreading accounted for 12,988 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Nov 618.70 dn 3.50 Jan 628.10 dn 3.00 Mar 636.10 dn 2.70 May 642.40 dn 2.70
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade received a brief bounce on Friday, after the United States Department of Agriculture issued its July supply and demand estimates but values turned lower by the end of the session.
The USDA trimmed domestic soybean production for 2024/25 by 15 million bushels at nearly 4.44 billion. Planted acres slipped 400,000 at 86.1 million and harvested acres were down 300,000 at 85.3 million.
U.S. soyoil output for the new crop year was kept at 28.52 billion pounds and soymeal was held at 57.08 million short tons.
As for South America, the USDA left 2023/24 soybean production for Brazil at 153 million tonnes, compared to Conab’s estimate of 147.33 million. The USDA cut 500,000 tonnes from its call on Argentina soybean production, now at 49.5 million.
The weather outlook for the U.S. has the major growing areas to turn drier over the next one to two weeks with temperatures cooling.
Safras and Mercado projected the 2024/25 Brazil soybean crop at 171.54 million tonnes, citing more planted acres.
Ahead of Monday’s report from the U.S. National Oilseed Processors Association, the trade estimated the June soybean crush at 177.94 million bushels, up nearly eight per cent from the previous June.
A report said China’s June soybean imports of 11.11 million tonnes rose 10.7 per cent from a year ago.
CORN futures handily fended off pressure on Friday from soybeans and wheat.
U.S. corn production for 2024/25 was increased by 240 million bushels at 15.10 billion. The USDA bumped up planted corn acres by 1.5 million at 91.5 million and projected harvested acres were raised by 1.3 million at 83.4 million.
Safras and Mercado predicted the 2024/25 Brazil corn crop at 134.92 million tonnes.
The USDA held 2023/24 Brazil corn production at 122 million tonnes and eased back that for Argentina by one million tonnes at 52 million.
South Korea rejected all offers on its tender for 140,000 tonnes of feed corn.
WHEAT futures were weaker on Friday, on a lack of bullish news.
The USDA upped wheat output for 2024/25 by 133 million bushels at 2.01 billion. Planted acres were down 300,000 at 47.2 million and harvest acres tacked on 800,000 at 38.8 million.
The USDA bumped up Canadian wheat production for 2024/25 by one million tonnes at 35 million.
A Kremlin spokesperson said Russia is open to restarting talks for the Black Sea grain deal to allow for safe passage of grain vessels traveling to and from Ukrainian ports.
Ukraine reported its 2024/25 grain harvest has so far brought in 8.4 million tonnes, which includes 5.7 million tonnes of wheat plus 2.4 million of barley. The Ukrainian agriculture ministry projected the total harvest to reach 56 million tonnes of grain along with 21 million of oilseeds.
FranceAgriMer said the country’s soft wheat harvest was coming along slowly, advancing only three points as of July 8 to four per cent finished. This time last year, the harvest was 26 per cent complete. The crop rated 57 per cent good to excellent, slipping one point from a week ago.
The Rosario Grain Exchange cut its projection on 2024/25 Argentina wheat crop by three per cent at 21 million tonnes. The USDA nudged up its call by 500,000 tonnes at 18 million.
