North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola, soybeans rise

WINNIPEG – The ICE Futures canola market moved higher on Monday, largely supported by the Chicago soy complex.

Chicago soyoil, Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed were higher. Crude oil also rose amidst ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was steady compared to Friday’s close.

The Commitment of Traders report from the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that as of Oct. 31, the funds’ net short position for canola expanded to 105,440 contracts, its largest on record.

There were 32,192 canola contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 31,495 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 14,414 of the contracts traded.

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The January SOYBEAN contract reached its highest price since September on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on Monday, marking five straight sessions in the black.

Nearly 2.09 million tonnes of soybeans were shipped during the week ended Nov. 2, according to weekly inspections data from the United States Department of Agriculture. The total was down from 2.61 million at the same week last year.

The Commitment of Traders report said that the net long positions for soybeans grew by more than 17,000 contracts to around 23,100. For soymeal, the net long position expanded by 14,500 contracts to nearly 107,100, its largest in months. For soyoil, its net long position was reduced by more than half to nearly 5,200 contracts.

The trade predicted an average 2.3 million bushel cut in U.S. soybean production prior to the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply/Demand Estimates (WASDE) report to be released on Thursday. The trade projected U.S. soybean production to be between 4.04 billion and 4.16 billion bushels. Carryout would be 2.5 million bushels looser on average in a range between 190 million and 261 million.

The USDA may raise Argentina’s soybean crop by 200,000 tonnes to 48.2 million tonnes and cut Brazil’s by 600,000 to 162.5 million.

The December CORN contract exceeded the US$4.80 per bushel level on Monday before settling below it.

More than 535,000 tonnes of corn were shipped during the week ended Nov. 2, down from 541,000 last week but up from 254,000 one year ago.

The net short position for corn grew by more than 47,000 contracts at more than 147,000, its largest net short position since last month.

Trade guesses prior to Thursday’s WASDE report pegged U.S. corn production to grow by 25 million bushels on average. The trade also projected ending stocks to be nearly 30 million bushels looser at 2.141 billion. Cuts of 500,000 tonnes of Argentine corn production as well as 1.4 million tonnes for Brazilian corn due to weather were also estimated.

All three major U.S. WHEAT varieties made modest gains for the third-straight session despite very low U.S. export numbers.

Approximately 71,600 tonnes of wheat were shipped during the week ended Nov. 2, down from 198,000 last week.

The net short position for Chicago wheat grew by 1,100 contracts to more than 108,800, while that for Kansas City hard red wheat added 4,000 contracts to be at 33,300. Minneapolis spring wheat also added 4,000 contracts to its net short position at 29,000.

Pre-report estimates for U.S. wheat ranged from a 20 million bushel cut to a 26 million bushel rise in production, with wheat carryout unchanged at 670 million bushels. Global wheat stocks are expected to be 300,000 tonnes tighter at 257.9 million.

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