WINNIPEG – Near-perfect planting and growing weather, strong prices and increased competition has led to a record wheat crop this year in Ontario.
“It’s almost the ‘perfect storm’ effect,” said Rob Gigiel, marketing manager with the Ontario Wheat Producers’ Marketing Board.
In a province better known for corn and soybeans, farmers planted more than a million acres of winter wheat last fall and expect to harvest up to 2.3 million tonnes in the coming weeks, double the size of a typical Ontario wheat crop, and almost two-thirds larger than its previous record, set in 1999.
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It’s still tiny compared to the wheat crop on the Canadian Prairies, forecast to be more than 20 million tonnes this year.
Most Ontario wheat is used for pastry flour, so it will not compete directly with prairie hard wheats, used for bread flour, Gigiel said.
Peter Johnson, cereals specialist with the Ontario government, said quality and yields appear exceptional.
He cited one farmer who saw average yields of 120 bushels per acre, 70 percent better than trend yields.
“Then you throw in good prices, and you’re like, ‘Wow! How can life get better?’ “Johnson said, noting current cash prices around $4 per bushel.
Ian Carter, president of London Agricultural Commodities, a grain company in London, Ont., said it will be a challenge to find storage space for that much grain before corn and soybean harvests will be challenging, and line-ups are starting at grain elevators.
“Just finding a market for that much wheat is a bit of a challenge too,” Carter said.
He said Ontario farmers typically sell up to 400,000 tonnes to Canadian flour mills, and up to 100,000 to feed mills.
The province often exports about 300,000 tonnes, mainly to the United States, but may have to double exports this year.
U.S. mills may be eager for the crop because of quality problems in wheat from Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana and Ohio, Johnson said.
Gigiel said Ukraine, Russia and other Eastern European markets have expressed interest in Ontario wheat, along with Middle Eastern markets and Bangladesh.
New marketing rules have added some excitement to the market, because for the first time, farmers can sell all their wheat outside the now-optional Ontario wheat board.
The changes are being watched in Western Canada, where farmers have to sell milling wheat, malting barley, durum and exported feed barley and wheat through the Canadian Wheat Board.
“There’s a lot of novelty perhaps associated with (the change),” Gigiel said, noting the Ontario board will have to earn farmers’ business by offering prices competitive with grain companies.
It remains to be seen how many farmers will continue to use the agency, he said, and whether Ontario can repeat the record performance.
Johnson noted that farmers planted soybeans late because of rain, which will mean harvest delays and a tight window for planting winter wheat before frost.
But he said with strong prices, he wouldn’t be surprised to see farmers stretch to plant 800,000 acres this fall.
