KIEV, Ukraine (Reuters) – Ukraine’s agriculture ministry has increased its grain export forecast for the 2004-05 season to as much as 10 million tonnes from an earlier six to seven million, a government official said July 14.
The official said Ukraine could export up to 4.5 million tonnes of wheat – a statement sure to scare producers in the European Union, which was flooded by cheaper Ukrainian wheat after a harvest of 38.8 million tonnes in 2002.
But Ukrainian analysts were quick to say the new government export forecast was unrealistic and the country was unlikely to export more than seven million tonnes this season.
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They said the forecast had been made to support local farmers and raise their revenues ahead of a presidential election on Oct. 31.
The agricultural vote is seen as key in Ukraine, the former breadbasket of the Soviet Union.
Prime minister Viktor Yanukovich, who faces a strong presidential bid from Ukraine’s opposition leader, has been pursuing measures to raise farmers’ revenues.
“Even the most brave optimists say that exports will not exceed eight million tonnes this season. But the most realistic figure is about seven million tonnes,” said Alina Feday from UkrAgroConsult agriculture consultancy.
Analysts said Ukraine could sell its grain to the Middle East, the European Union, north Africa and Asia.
Ukrainian agriculture officials have said the country plans to harvest about 35 million tonnes of grain this year, including about 15 million tonnes of wheat.
In 2003, Ukraine harvested 20.2 million tonnes of grain, including 3.6 million of wheat – its worst crop in the past 50 years. Exports fell in the 2003-04 June-July season to 2.7 million tonnes.
In 2002-03, Ukraine exported 10.7 million tonnes, including 6.5 million of wheat, following a bumper crop.
