North American grain/oilseed review: Canada advances

By Jade Markus and Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, January 24 – ICE Futures Canada canola closed stronger on Tuesday, propped up by fund buying.

Though advances in the Chicago Board of Trade soybean and soy oil markets provided some spillover support, canola outpaced those markets to the upside.

However, the oilseed has a number of bearish factors, which could limit gains in coming sessions.

The Canadian dollar advanced sharply against its US counterpart on Tuesday, which added pressure to canola.

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Higher prices are likely to increase farmer selling, capping gains.

About 23,730 canola contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 18,306 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for about 11,580 of the contracts traded.

Barley futures were untraded and unchanged while milling wheat and durum were revised after the close.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade settled with small gains on Tuesday, moving above unchanged in the final minutes of the day.

Conditions are expected to remain relatively dry across Argentina, which limited the upside potential as production prospects improve in South America.

Uncertainty over where US agricultural exports will fit under new President Donald Trump’s “America first” agenda kept some caution in the futures.

Informa Economics released updated acreage estimates, lowering its forecast on 2017 US soybean seedings to 88.6 million, from 88.8 million. However, that would still be a new record.

SOYOIL futures settled with small gains on Tuesday, but well off their highs for the day.

SOYMEAL futures were down on Tuesday, with spreading against soyoil behind some of the activity.

CORN futures in Chicago were down by four to six cents per bushel on Tuesday, as speculative selling materialized after prices touched nearby resistance.

The March contract briefly traded above the 200-day moving average, but was unable to hold above that chart point.

Informa raised its estimate for US corn acres to a record 90.5 million, from 90.1 million last month.

The improving South American weather conditions were also bearish for corn, according to participants.

However, solid export demand, including a 125,000 tonne sale to ‘unknown destinations’ was supportive.

WHEAT futures in Chicago were up down by three to six cents per bushel on Tuesday.

A lack of any nearby weather concerns for the US winter wheat crop kept values under pressure, especially as world supplies remain large overall.

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