SASKATOON — The fever seems to have broken for Canada’s ailing grain transportation system.
The latest numbers from the Grain Transportation Agency indicate there’s more than enough capacity to handle anticipated demand over the next two months.
The railways will be called on to haul 7,829,200 tonnes of grain to meet export sales commitments during June and July. The GTA numbers say they will be able to move 7,954,990 tonnes.
“These numbers indicate that yes, there is capacity, both east and west, to fill in some more sales programs if that can be done by the marketers,” said Bruce McFadden, the GTA’s director of operations.
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Added wheat board representative Brian Stacey: “I think the worst is behind us.”
Pressure is off
The addition of more rolling stock to the grain fleet, the introduction of weekend unloading at the West Coast and a slowdown in sales have combined to ease pressure on the system.
The most visible sign of the improved situation is that the traffic jam in English Bay has all but disappeared. At one point in February, 36 vessels were anchored off Vancouver, with the line-up averaging 25 during March and April.
On May 27 just 12 vessels were waiting, with seven loading and nine due to arrive the following week. Industry officials say it’s desirable to have seven to 10 vessels waiting, to ensure a steady supply of grain to the terminals.
Another sign of progress is that about 500,000 tonnes of shipments originally scheduled for May have been rolled over into the June shipping program at the West Coast. That sounds like a lot, but it’s down substantially from the previous month’s 1.3 million tonnes.
McFadden said 300,000 to 500,000 tonnes is considered acceptable. If it was zero, “there is a real danger we’d have gaps in the shipping program and we’d have cars stacking up, unable to unload.”
Lakehead to exceed expected sales
The GTA shipping plan projects a slight shortfall in capacity in June at the West Coast and a bigger shortfall for Canadian interior points and the U.S. But at Thunder Bay, the operational capacity will exceed this month’s 1.5-million-tonne sales program by 80,000 tonnes.
“There will be a build-up of inventory at Thunder Bay and also in the eastern system, as we come towards the end of the crop year, to allow for maximum deliveries before the end of the year,” said McFadden.
For July, capacity will exceed the sales-based demand by about 200,000 tonnes at the West Coast and about 120,000 tonnes at the Lakehead. Again, there will be a shortfall of about 60,000 tonnes for Canadian interior and U.S. destinations.
Meanwhile, seven transportation task forces submitted their reports to the federal government May 30. The reports deal with backtracking grain from Thunder Bay, rail car demurrage, labor relations at the West Coast, car forecasting and co-ordination, car pooling at terminals and allowing private companies to add cars to the fleet.
