Brian Otto knows his malt barley crop will be average to poor this year. As of the first week in July, average was looking less likely.
“The barley is headed out. It’s starting to show burnout spots in (the field),” said Otto, who grows malt barley and other crops on his farm near Warner, Alta.
“If we got a rain now, it would plump the kernels up … and make better malt barley out of it…. If we don’t get any more rain it will be a light, thin kernel, which is not very good for malt. In fact, it’s not acceptable for malt in most cases.”
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Minimal rainfall has fallen on southern Alberta since Otto seeded in April. His farm got 25 millimetres over the last 10 to 12 weeks.
“What the crop has survived on … is (soil moisture) we had in reserve from last fall,” said Otto, chair of the Barley Council of Canada chair.
Rod Green, a grain broker and owner of Central Ag Marketing in Airdrie, Alta., said malt barley fields across Alberta and Saskatchewan are maturing faster than normal.
“Everything is moving ahead too fast,” Green said. “Everything is heading out ahead of (schedule)…. It’s going to be an early harvest. We’re going to see malt samples … in July.”
Most of the malt barley crop may have lighter bushel weights and higher protein this year, but it’s too early to write off production across Western Canada.
There are areas with adequate soil moisture, such as west-central Alberta.
“Up and down the No. 2 highway (in Alberta), you can say we’re in reasonable shape here,” Green said. “And west of the No. 2 highway, (it’s fine).”
Otto said this means a decent malt barley crop is still possible.
“Trying to speculate now about what the malt crop is going to be and what the supply is going to be is very difficult.”
Still, speculation propels crop prices. Malt barley prices crept upward in June and into July. Many growers contracted production at $5 to $5.50 a bushel earlier this year.
“It has gone up a little bit, but it seems to have peaked at this point,” Otto said. However, malt barley growers aren’t locked into $5 or $5.50 a bu. They normally contract a portion of acres at an initial price.
“Everybody thinks when we sign a malt contract we’ve contracted the price. No, we haven’t,” Otto said.
“We might price 25 percent (of acres) when we contract and keep pricing as we go along.”
Green said Canadian maltsters aren’t driving up barley prices because they still have ample supplies. There’s still some carry-over from the massive 2013 crop and supply from the 2014 harvest.
“The maltsters are well covered, and there’s really little business going on right now,” Green said.
Prices could rise if the drought persists. However, imports should curtail Canadian prices because malt barley is a global crop, Green said.
“The maltsters can always fall back on the European crop.”
