Mexico is expected to be one of the world’s largest economies by 2050, surpassing Canada and other current members of the G7.
Pricewaterhouse Coopers (PwC) and other analysts have forecasted this leap by our Latin neighbour in the North American Free Trade Agreement.
PwC Issued a paper in 2014 projecting global economic growth by country using “purchasing power parity,” an economic concept that balances out the differences of currency values.
By this measure, which is a somewhat controversial departure from the usual measurements based on gross domestic product, China has already passed the United States as the world’s largest economy.
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The PwC paper says that Mexico is already in 11th position today, topping Canada’s 15th ranking.
By 2050, it sees Mexico at number six and Canada in 19th position. Mexico will be in the second tier, behind the giants, China, the U.S. and India, but will rank ahead of Germany, France and the United Kingdom.
No matter how you measure it, Mexico, with a population of about 122 million, is a rising country and some sources say its middle class alone is larger than Canada’s 35.7 million population.
Since NAFTA, Canada’s trade with Mexico has blossomed.
Canada and Mexico are each other’s third largest trading partner. Two-way trade amounted to $34.3 billion in 2014, a remarkable 650 percent increase since 1993, the year before NAFTA came into force.
You’d think that it would be higher on the radar of Canadian agricultural exporters.
We often hear of trade missions returning from China or India, but Mexico, not so much.
The country is already an important destination for Canadian canola, wheat, beef and pork, providing a foothold for greater trade.
In 2014, Mexico’s imports of canola seed were valued at $724 million, double the value of 10 years ago. Sales of canola kicked in another $44 million.
Wheat imports were valued at $307 million, up 90 percent from 10 years ago.
Sales of pork and beef each easily topped $100 million last year and offal products were valued at $86 million.
Pulse crops totalled about $37 million.
NAFTA has also helped to encourage investment. Mexico’s Grupo Bimbo spent $1.8 billion last year to buy Maple Leaf’s Canada Bread unit and Saputo Food’s bakery unit.
I don’t mean to imply that Canadian agriculture ignores Mexico.
Alberta trade representatives were there in March. One deficit they found was the Mexican feed sector’s understanding of Canada’s grain and oilseed industries.
They also found Mexico was looking for healthy food products, not surprising for a country that has a serious obesity problem.
A greater effort by Canadian food exporters might prove rewarding, considering our trade partnership, Mexico’s growing population and affluence and the proximity of the two countries.