Ag Canada lowers canola carryout forecast by one million tonnes

Winnipeg – Canadian canola carryout stocks at the end of the current marketing year (2018/19) will be considerably tighter than earlier estimates, according to updated supply/demand tables from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, released on Sep. 18, 2018.

Agriculture Canada’s market analysis branch forecast canola ending stocks for 2018/19 at 1.250 million tonnes, which would be down by a million tonnes from the August estimate and well below the 2017/18 carryout of 2.391 million tonnes.

Wheat ending stocks for 2018/19 were also lowered by 500,000 tonnes, to 5.000 million. That compares with the 2017/18 wheat carryout of 6.180 million tonnes.

Statistics Canada releases updated production estimates on Wednesday, Sep. 19, which will likely lead to adjustments in the Agriculture Canada stocks estimates in future reports.

Total ending stocks of the major grains and oilseeds for 2018/19 were lowered to 10.345 million tonnes, from an earlier forecast of 12.420 million. Grain and oilseed ending stocks for the 2017/18 marketing year, which ended July 31, were pegged at 13.943 million tonnes.

Total pulse and special crop ending stocks for 2018/19 are now pegged at 1.540 million tonnes, which compares with the August estimate of 1.305 million and the 2017/18 carryout of 1.653 million tonnes.

September estimates for Canadian 2018/19 (Aug/Jul) and 2017/18 major crops supply and demand. In million metric tonnes.

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