I’m a bear in the present ag market and world, but I like to contemplate the bull side, just in case I’m wrong.
So here, from the drunken and wildly swinging shotgun of the market commentary community, come shooting some reasons to be bullish for the second half of 2011:
1) The U.S. debt and default crisis has passed. Sure, nothing was resolved, but perhaps the planet will relax now that imminent U.S. default is not a reality. The world can enjoy a few months of relaxing after months of worry. Then get back to worrying in early 2012.
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2) Heatwaves have limited the potential of the U.S. corn crop and droughtiness has limited the potential of eastern prairie and North Dakota wheat.
3) Hot weather in the U.S. is keeping pigs skinny, meaning less pork coming to market in the coming months.
4) Continuing Chinese demand for pork isn’t going away.
5) Â The International Grains Council is predicting world soybean production to fall this year, while demand keeps rising.
6) China’s government has asked local governments to stockpile food, now that there are signs that the country’s inflation might be waning.
7) Oat prices have been held back by the recent frightfulness of the world markets, but the fundamental situation is overwhelmingly bullish.
So, if you want to be bullish, there are some reasons.
