Wanna see a rough approximation of reality? Here’s one:
That is a portrait of yours truly as interpreted by Noella, my three and a half year old daughter, last night at dinner. If you knew what I actually look like, you’d probably think it’s a fairly close approximation of me, but rough and not entirely to scale or detail.
Here are some other rough sketches and attempts at approximating reality I made yesterday:
That’s the DBA agriculture fund – which approximates the value of ag commodities trading around the world – compared to the CRB – which shows the values of all commodities, from metals to ag to energy.
Here’s another rough approximation of reality:
Notice how the DBA and CRB are moving generally within two standard deviations of each other? Hmmmm. That means something. Why would ags, impacted hugely by weather, be so closely related to energy and metals and the other commodities. Something’s going on . . .
Here’s another rough approximation of reality:
There’s DBA vs CRB vs . . . IBM. Yes, the computer systems company. Well, they’re all trending together. And have nothing to do with each other. What the heck does that mean?
When all markets move together something’s going on, and it’s not always a good something, especially when things turn down.
I’m not going to discuss what that something is today, but I thought I’d leave you with those rough approximations of reality to ponder. Like the portrait of me by my daughter, they don’t fully reveal the underlying truth, but they come some of the way, certainly.
