Canadian Canola Council chair Richard Wansbutter had a tough job this morning, but it should have been an easy job.
Usually the opening address of any convention is a bit of yawner, with few bland comments and a rather obvious summation of where the industry’s at.
But that’s hard to do with canola this year. Because you could see this as either a great year or a rotten year.
Being in the news business, I know all about the bad sides of the canola biz: China and blackleg; the U.S. and salmonella;
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Prices had been softening for most of the previous month, but heading into the Labour Day long weekend, the price drops were startling.
Being in the markets reporting business, I also know the bright side: the most profitable big acreage crop of 2009-10 and the best-looking crop for 2010-11.
So has it been a good year or a bad year?
“A great year but one with challenges,” said Wansbutter, noting big sales and big production as well as market blockages.
I’ve spoken to a lot of farmers here today. They are having trouble working out whether this is a good time in the canola industry because of these conflicting factors. A bright farmer I spoke to at lunch was worried that canola’s looking too good, so farmers might push acreages again and keep cranking out bigger crops, causing an inevitable decline in prices if demand drops.
So there’s a bit of an odd feeling here in San Francisco at the convention, with canola seeming to both boom ahead and hit roadblocks. The future looks bright. The present is confusing. But as long as canola still brings in a good buck, the confusion is OK.
