A golden age, then a wave of ugliness

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Published: March 19, 2010

There’s a chance to make lots of money on canola, and that opportunity is coming right now.

That’s what agricultural commodity analyst David Jackson of LMC International just told the canola council convention.

“The next two to three years will be a good time to be an oilseed producer and a very good time to be a canola producer,” Jackson said.

Prices could shoot higher as booming European demand continues to outstrip European production and Chinese meal demand keeps growing. “In Europe it’s all good news,” he said.

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So there’s an opportunity for sky-high prices.

But five years out a tsunami of palm oil is going to hit the market. That’s bad. Really bad. Indonesia has already planted enough new trees to producer 30 to 40 million tonnes of new production. The planting began with 2007-08’s peak in prices and has continued. Since the palm trees take eight years to fully mature, that wave of new palm oil is still a few years away, but when it comes, it’s going to wash over prices, Jackson said. Once palm trees start producing, they produce for years. So the depressing effect on prices could linger.

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Ed White

Ed White

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