SASKATOON — Winter wheat supplies are expected to be tighter this year due to disappointing crops in two important production regions and a recovery in demand in the Middle East and North Africa.
“We are looking at a more precarious supply picture in the European Union and Black Sea regions in 2025-26,” said Anna Sneidermane, deputy editor agriculture with Argus Media.
The firm is forecasting a Russian wheat crop of 76.8 to 81.5 million tonnes, compared to 81.3 million tonnes for 2024-25.
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Total supplies will be down year on year due to 13.2 million tonnes of carry-in compared to 14.9 million tonnes at the start of 2024-25.
A couple of cold spells in recent weeks may have caused some winterkill in areas with poor snow cover. The extent of the damage will not be known until April.
Farmers in southern Russia are already out fertilizing their fields, which is a sure sign of a lack of snow cover.
The frost events may have increased protein levels in the crop, but a lack of moisture could be hurting production prospects.
“If it keeps going like this, we could be looking at lower yields but higher quality,” said Sneidermane.
Argus is forecasting 27.5 million acres of wheat will be harvested in Russia, a one million acre drop from last year.
“That will tighten supplies even if weather remains favourable between now and harvest,” she said.
Ukraine’s winter wheat crop is in better shape than Russia’s, although there is also a lack of soil moisture in many key growing regions of that country.
Crops in the western part of the country are looking good while those in the east “hang in the balance.”
“There is little moisture there, the wheat is weak and the frosts have already damaged the crops,” said Sneidermane.
“Almost every other field is problematic.”
Spring weather will be crucial for determining the fate of those crops.
Argus is forecasting 22.3 million tonnes of Ukrainian wheat production in 2025-26, almost identical to the 22.5 million tonnes estimated for the current crop year.
“What is causing more concern for Ukrainian agricultural producers at the moment is rapeseed, which has suffered more from dry weather, particularly in eastern Ukraine,” she said.
Sneidermane said it is too early to forecast how much of the crop will be milling wheat, but the warm winter suggests there could be lower protein content.
Romania’s crop appears to be in better condition than Russia’s and Ukraine’s.
“Romanian wheat development so far appears to be on track for the crop to reach record production in 2025-26,” she said.
Snow cover has been good in the southeast part of the country. There is less snow in the west, but temperatures have been mild in that region.
April will tell the tale for Romania’s crop, but as things sit, Argus is forecasting a record 11.1 million tonnes of production, up from 10.1 million tonnes in 2024-25.
France’s crop is not as bad as it was this time last year, but it is still considerably below historical average.
“After last year’s disastrous wheat harvest, the crops are looking better but by no means as good as in previous years,” said Sneidermane.
There is still plenty of time for crop fortunes to improve, but France has less wiggle room than the Black Sea crops.
Argus is forecasting 32.3 million tonnes of production in 2025-26, up from 25.2 million tonnes last year.
“But any unfavourable developments in weather could push this lower going forward,” she said.
Sneidermane is expecting strong demand from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). There is also significant risk for domestic wheat production in those regions, which could push import demand even higher.
Any further decrease in Black Sea production could result in limited supplies for other regions of the world.
If Russia’s traders regain full access to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) payment system, they could be quite price competitive in the MENA region despite lower exportable supplies.
Argus will be producing official spring crop tour results for the Black Sea countries in the coming weeks.
