The crop has a higher risk of winterkill because of plants' already weakened condition and may have trouble recovering
SASKATOON — Winter wheat crops have deteriorated in Russia but are improving in the United States and the European Union.
An estimated 37.2 per cent of Russia’s crop is rated in poor condition versus four per cent last year and the five-year average of 7.3 per cent.
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It is the worst rating in decades, according to SovEcon analyst Andrey Sizov.
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This year’s crop has a higher risk of winterkill because the plants are in a weakened state and higher odds of below-trend yields.
“This is more or less in line with our expectations,” he said in an email.
SovEcon is forecasting 81.6 million tonnes of Russian wheat production in 2025, which is below the local Russian analysts’ consensus of 84 to 86 million tonnes.
“It seems that now the market is starting to think that our pessimistic estimate looks more reasonable,” said Sizov.
SovEcon issued a special note for its clients a week ago stating that the wheat market will bottom out shortly and that there could be “substantially higher prices” within the next one to two months.
Sizov believes that prediction is still relevant.
“We published a similar note on Aug. 22. The market bottomed out two days later and December CBOT wheat rallied a dollar after that,” he said.
Russian deputy prime minister Dmitry Patrushev recently told the Interfax news agency that some of the country’s winter wheat is beyond salvation.
“We will have to replant with spring crops,” he said, according to a Reuters story.
MarketsFarm analyst Bruce Burnett said that would have implications for the wheat market.
“It means that Russian production will probably be lower because the spring wheats are not as high yielding as winter wheats,” he said.
Also, Russian farmers may not replace winter wheat with spring wheat because they have other options.
Commodity prices will ultimately dictate whether they stick with wheat or switch to barley or other spring crops.
Russia tends to export its winter wheat while consuming its spring wheat domestically. However, that is spring wheat produced in the Urals and Siberian federal districts.
The spring wheat that will be replacing the winter wheat in the Southern and Lower Volga districts is more likely to be exported due to logistics.
Reuters recently reported that Russia’s winter wheat planting is already estimated to be down 10 per cent this year, the lowest level since 2019, according to Rusagrotrans, Russia’s flagship grain rail carrier.
Burnett agrees with Sizov that the biggest threat to the crop is winterkill due to its poor condition heading into winter.
The crop could still fare decently if it avoids winterkill and receives beneficial spring rain, but some damage has already occurred.
“The yield potential is probably compromised here already to the point where it’s not going to be a bumper crop,” he said.
The winter wheat crop in the United States was also in deep trouble shortly after planting but that is no longer the case.
“Conditions there improved dramatically,” said Burnett.
Heavy rain and mild temperatures in late October and November turned the fortunes around. Only 12 per cent of the crop was rated poor or very poor as of Nov. 24.
The European Union’s winter wheat crop is also looking good after a wet start threatened to derail planting. Fortunately, there was enough dry weather at the tail end of the planting window to get the crop in the ground.
“The conditions are better than they are in Russia,” said Burnett.
The European Union is looking for a rebound following the disappointing 2024 harvest of 112 million tonnes of soft wheat, a 10 per cent reduction from the previous year.
The improved production prospects in the U.S. and the EU are helping offset Russia’s woes and keeping a lid on wheat futures prices.
Statistics Canada just bumped up its 2024-25 Canadian wheat estimate to 35 million tonnes from its previous forecast of 34.3 million tonnes.
However, Burnett does not expect any change in carryout due to Canada’s strong early-season export program.
Contact sean.pratt@producer.com
