Barring a major dump of snow, farmers in Manitoba’s flood-prone Red River Valley won’t have to dig out their hip waders this spring, says the province’s senior flood forecaster.
“They shouldn’t be held up by flooding,” said Alf Warkentin, of the Manitoba water stewardship department.
“I don’t think there will be any big surprises. The biggest factor now is the weather for the next three to four weeks.”
The potential for flooding is low, according to the province’s flood forecast issued March 20, because the snow pack in southern Manitoba is below normal and soil moisture is average to below average in the Red River watershed.
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If there is a dump of snow or a spring rainstorm in the next few weeks, there is a chance of water spilling over the Red River’s banks from the U.S. border to Morris, 40 kilometres south of Winnipeg.
The likelihood of that scenario is only 10 percent, the forecast noted.
The report also has good news for farmers with land beside the major rivers in Manitoba’s southwest, the Assiniboine and Souris.
Those waterways are not expected to flood.
The story is the same in the rest of the province, as below average snowfall should produce a below average runoff.
The 2007-08 winter has been dry in most of Manitoba, even prompting the water stewardship department to cancel its March snow survey because almost nothing has fallen since early February.
Brandon’s snowfall has been below average since the beginning of 2008. Brandon’s precipitation in January was four millimetres, according to Environment Canada statistics, compared to normal precipitation of 18 mm.
In February, eight mm of precipitation fell (normal is 14.1 mm) and as of March 26, Brandon had received nine mm (normal 22 mm) for the month.
In addition to the lack of snow, soil moisture is below normal in several regions of the province, especially in western Manitoba.
“It seems to be on the dry side from Melita all the way up to the Roblin area,” said Andy Nadler, an agricultural meteorologist for the province, based in Carman.
It was difficult to draw conclusions, Nadler said, because the department lacks statistics to determine long-term normals for soil moisture.
“In terms of available water (in the soil) we’re seeing some of those areas at less than 40 percent of available water holding capacity …. It’s well under half of what your field capacity would be.”
Based on surveys done last fall, the other areas with depleted soil moisture are the region southwest of Portage la Prairie, around Holland and Glenboro, and the east side of Lake Manitoba.
Last year’s dry summer and fall depleted the moisture in the soil sub zone, or as Nadler described it, “the fuel tank that carries a crop through dry periods.
“A lot of that (sub zone) has been tapped out by last year’s crops and we didn’t have any significant replenishment … since last harvest,” said Nadler.
Cold weather and minimal snow cover this winter combined to build a deeper layer of frost.
That could prevent the refilling of the sub zone this spring.
As a result, less spring precipitation may penetrate the frozen soil, although, that’s an assumption, Warkentin said.
“Sometimes if the soil is dry it can act differently,” he said. “Frost can actually cause cracking in the soil and then the infiltration is still good.”
Overall, Nadler said the soil conditions are a concern, but it’s a little early to reach for the panic button.
“Anything can happen still,” he said.
