Canola exports will end up the third strongest in the past 10 years, according to recent Canadian Grain Commission weekly export data.
Exports in Week 50 (ending July 20) were strong at 202,400 tonnes, which pushed total exports for the crop year to date to 9.44 million tonnes with 11 days still left in the marketing year.
On July 20, there were 242,400 tonnes in store in Vancouver terminals, which should enable the 2024-25 crop year program to reach the 9.75 million tonne mark.
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This is 250,000 tonnes above the current Agriculture Canada estimate and would push ending stocks below the one million tonne mark.
That would be the lowest level of canola stocks since the 2012-13 marketing year, when July 31 stocks were 588,100 tonnes.
China has been the largest importer of Canadian canola this market year by a large margin.
At the end of May, China had imported 4.4 million tonnes and accounted for 52 per cent of total Canadian exports.
Japan, Europe and Mexico round out the top importers of Canadian canola this year.
The two largest increases came from Europe (up 1.1 million tonnes), Japan (up 686,000 tonnes) and China (up 563,000 tonnes). The increase in Europe is in response to the small rapeseed production in 2024.
The main concern is that canola supplies are expected to be lower in 2025-26.
MarketsFarm estimates that canola production will reach 18.6 million tonnes this year, which is more than 550,000 tonnes below last year.
Agriculture Canada is projecting a crop of 17.8 million tonnes, which would cause total supplies to drop to only 19 million tonnes in 2025-26. This is 3.36 million tonnes below the projection for the current marketing year.
Anyway you slice it, canola exports will have to be limited in the 2025-26 crop year.
Europe will likely drop its imports in the 2025-26 crop year due to a larger crop. China will likely cut back on Canadian imports due to stronger Canadian prices.
Prices will need to remain strong during the 2025-26 crop year in order to ration the tighter supplies in canola. This should be positive news for marketing the 2025 crop.
