November canola rose Monday to $507.20 per tonne, continuing a remarkably steady progression since mid-April.
But one analyst thinks futures will have trouble pushing past resistance at $508 per tonne.
“I think the canola market is cautious. It’s cautious on the weather. It knows that potentially, if the growers get going, we’re going to probably have 22 million acres,” said Errol Anderson of Pro Market in Calgary.
However, the bottom won’t fall out of the market.
“If seeding gets going in the next few days, I can see the November peeling off, but it won’t go down that far.”
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Alberta Crop Report: Rains in the south, dryness in the north
Rain fell onto the southern half of Alberta last week, while hot and dry conditions persisted in the northern half, according to the province’s crop report released on July 18.
However, bad weather on the Prairies could ignite an upward break.
“If there are any renewed concerns, that $508 will break and we’ll move higher,” said Anderson.
“If I had to go long or short on new crop canola right now, I would go long. There’s just not much downside.”
July canola futures were flat at $525, revealing tight stocks.
Cool and damp weather continued to afflict Western Canada, slowing seeding progress and pushing back expected dates of seeding for thousands of farmers.
Some farmers still have unharvested crops out in the field. Others have wet soils that need warm weather to dry.
U.S. MARKETS
Soybean oil was higher Monday, while soybeans fell.
Wheat contracts fell, as did corn. Corn exports have been weak this year and continue to be weak.
Traders will watch for the wheat stocks numbers in United States Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply and demand report due Wednesday.
US SEEDING PROGRESS
The USDA said the U.S. corn crop was 47 percent planted as of Sunday, behind the five-year average of 52 percent but ahead of an average of analyst estimates for 44 percent. The USDA said the U.S. soybean crop was 14 percent planted, lagging the five-year average of 17 percent. More storms are expected in the Midwest late next week.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 21 cents to US$46.43 per barrel.
In the late afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US72.977 cents, down from 73.21 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3702.
The TSX closed up 70.04 points, or 0.45 percent, at 15,652.08.
The CBOE Volatility index, Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” dropped to its lowest in over two decades following centrist Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the French presidential election.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.03 percent to end at 21,012.28 points and the S&P 500 gained 0.08 points, less than a hundredth of a percent, to end at 2,399.37. It briefly touched a record high of 2,399.94.
The Nasdaq Composite added 0.03 percent to 6,102.66
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 2017 525.50 -0.30 -0.06%
Canola Nov 2017 507.20 +2.40 +0.48%
Canola Jan 2018 512.10 +2.50 +0.49%
Canola Mar 2018 516.70 +2.60 +0.51%
Canola May 2018 518.50 +2.60 +0.50%
Milling Wheat Jul 2017 239.00 -6.00 -2.45%
Milling Wheat Oct 2017 239.00 -6.00 -2.45%
Milling Wheat Dec 2017 243.00 -5.00 -2.02%
Durum Wheat Jul 2017 273.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2017 266.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2017 266.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2017 138.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans May 2017 956.25 -7.75 -0.80%
Soybeans Jul 2017 964.75 -9.00 -0.92%
Soybeans Aug 2017 965.75 -8.75 -0.90%
Soybeans Sep 2017 962.25 -6.75 -0.70%
Soybeans Nov 2017 961.25 -5.75 -0.59%
Soybeans Jan 2018 968.25 -5.75 -0.59%
Soybean Meal May 2017 309.50 -3.00 -0.96%
Soybean Meal Jul 2017 313.60 -3.50 -1.10%
Soybean Meal Aug 2017 314.30 -3.20 -1.01%
Soybean Oil May 2017 32.73 -0.01 -0.03%
Soybean Oil Jul 2017 32.94 -0.03 -0.09%
Soybean Oil Aug 2017 33.02 -0.03 -0.09%
Corn May 2017 356.75 -5.75 -1.59%
Corn Jul 2017 366.00 -5.50 -1.48%
Corn Sep 2017 374.00 -5.00 -1.32%
Corn Dec 2017 384.25 -5.00 -1.28%
Corn Mar 2018 393.75 -5.25 -1.32%
Oats May 2017 252.75 +4.50 +1.81%
Oats Jul 2017 248.50 +2.25 +0.91%
Oats Sep 2017 230.50 +2.75 +1.21%
Oats Dec 2017 224.00 -1.00 -0.44%
Oats Mar 2018 227.50 -0.25 -0.11%
Wheat May 2017 418.00 -10.00 -2.34%
Wheat Jul 2017 433.50 -9.25 -2.09%
Wheat Sep 2017 448.75 -8.25 -1.81%
Wheat Dec 2017 469.25 -7.50 -1.57%
Spring Wheat May 2017 532.75 -9.25 -1.71%
Spring Wheat Jul 2017 544.75 -8.75 -1.58%
Spring Wheat Sep 2017 552.25 -8.75 -1.56%
Spring Wheat Dec 2017 560.50 -7.50 -1.32%
Spring Wheat Mar 2018 568.50 -8.50 -1.47%
Hard Red Wheat May 2017 432.50 +0.25 +0.06%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 444.25 -6.00 -1.33%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 461.50 -5.50 -1.18%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 486.00 -5.25 -1.07%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018 500.25 -4.00 -0.79%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017 127.78 -0.52 -0.41%
Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017 123.25 +2.07 +1.71%
Live Cattle (P) Oct 2017 119.08 +2.58 +2.21%
Feeder Cattle (P) May 2017 148.30 +4.52 +3.14%
Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2017 156.65 +3.23 +2.11%
Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2017 155.95 +3.85 +2.53%
Lean Hogs (P) May 2017 69.90 +0.42 +0.60%
Lean Hogs (P) Jun 2017 77.38 +0.98 +1.28%
Lean Hogs (P) Jul 2017 77.22 +0.32 +0.42%
