Canola futures edged higher again on Friday, but over the week they posted a slight loss.
The November contract closed at $489.10, up 50 cents.
Over the week, it fell 60 cents.
Harvest pressure continues to weigh down canola prices, but demand is starting to rebuild now that new crop is entering the commercial system.
Soybeans edged lower today but gained slightly on the week, shaking off the negative effects of Tuesday’s bearish USDA monthly supply and demand report, which raised the production forecast, surprising the trade.
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Many U.S. farmers and traders still think the USDA is too optimistic in its yield forecast after a dry August and early September in the Midwest.
A stronger than expected monthly U.S. soybean crush in August supported soybeans.
Also, soybeans and the wider oilseed market are supported on news that it is dry in a large part of Brazil and too wet in parts of Argentina.
The start of seeding in much of South America does not occur for several weeks yet but if the challenging weather continues it could delay seeding and affect yields.
Also, conditions in the Pacific are moving toward a La Nina. If it does fully develop, La Nina tends to deliver drier weather to southern Brazil.
SPRING WHEAT
Minneapolis spring wheat future fell 25.25 cents a bushel or about four percent over the week.
Wheat values are weighed down by a record large Russian wheat crop that is causing it to aggressively compete on the world market.
ALBERTA HARVEST
Alberta’s harvest was 45 percent complete as of Sept. 12, well ahead of the five-year average of about 32 percent, according to the provincial crop report issued today.
Another 17 percent is in the swath and 38 percent remains standing.
In the south about 87 percent is complete. Central areas are 58 percent, the northeast is 25 percent, Peace region is 17 percent and the northwest is only 11 percent complete.
Only 28 percent of canola is in the bin.
WEATHER OUTLOOK
It could be a rainy weekend in southern Manitoba and the southeast corner of Saskatchewan. Other areas should be mostly dry.
More rain is expected next week with larger accumulations in northern areas of Alberta and Saskatchewan and most of Manitoba.
CANOLA CRUSH
The crush pace is starting to ramp up with 176,184 tonnes of canola processed in the week to Sept. 13, up about 14 percent from the week before and a capacity use of about 80 percent.
Farmers delivered a whopping amount of canola into the commercial system in the past week – 627,000 tonnes or the third highest one-week total in 10 years of Canadian Grain Commission records.
That brought commercial stocks in all positions up over one million tonnes for the first time in four months.
EXPORTS
Canola exports totaled 96,400 tonnes in the week to Sept. 10, up from 57,800 tonnes the week before.
The export total for the crop year is 662,800 tonnes, about 110,000 tonnes behind last year.
Wheat and durum exports are running well ahead of last year at this point.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Agriculture Canada’s September balance sheet issued today was updated to include Statistics Canada’s numbers on production and year-end stocks.
With canola production forecast at 18.2 million tonnes, carry in at 1.348 million and imports of 100,000 tonnes, the total supply is 19.65 million, down about 2.1 million tonnes from last year.
AgCanada forecasts exports of 9.9 million tonnes, down about a million from last year and 9.1 million tonnes of domestic crush, feed waste and dockage, down about 360,000 from last year.
It forecasts year-end stocks falling to a tight 650,000 tonnes.
Those numbers might not stand, as many believe production will be bigger than farmers expected when Statistics Canada interviewed them in late July.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
A terrorist bombing in London and another North Korea missile launch had little impact on markets.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were unchanged at US$49.89 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US82.09 cents, down from 82.17 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2182.
The S&P/TSX composite index rose 0.31 of a point to 15,173.03.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 64 points or 0.3 percent at 22,268.34 points a new record high. The Nasdaq Composite added 19 points or 0.30 percent to 6,448.47. The S&P 500 index rose four points, or 0.2 percent, to 2,500.
For the week, the TSX composite rose 1.25 percent, the S&P 500 rose 1.58 percent, the Dow gained 2.16 percent and the Nasdaq rose 1.39 percent.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 17 489.10s +0.50 +0.10%
Canola Jan 18 495.70s +0.70 +0.14%
Canola Mar 18 501.50s +0.20 +0.04%
Canola May 18 505.70s +0.50 +0.10%
Canola Jul 18 507.50s +0.60 +0.12%
Milling Wheat Oct 17 223.00s -5.00 -2.19%
Milling Wheat Dec 17 225.00s -6.00 -2.60%
Milling Wheat Mar 18 231.00s -6.00 -2.53%
Durum Wheat Oct 17 279.00s unch unch
Durum Wheat Dec 17 283.00s unch unch
Durum Wheat Mar 18 286.00s unch unch
Barley Oct 17 145.00s unch unch
Barley Dec 17 148.00s unch unch
Barley Mar 18 151.00s unch unch
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 17 968-6s -7-2 -0.74%
Soybeans Jan 18 979-0s -7-0 -0.71%
Soybeans Mar 18 987-6s -5-6 -0.58%
Soybeans May 18 995-6s -6-0 -0.60%
Soybeans Jul 18 1002-4s -6-0 -0.59%
Soybean Meal Oct 17 308.0s -1.5 -0.48%
Soybean Meal Dec 17 311.4s -1.7 -0.54%
Soybean Meal Jan 18 312.9s -1.5 -0.48%
Soybean Oil Oct 17 34.56s -0.27 -0.78%
Soybean Oil Dec 17 34.81s -0.27 -0.77%
Soybean Oil Jan 18 34.97s -0.26 -0.74%
Corn Dec 17 354-6s +0-4 +0.14%
Corn Mar 18 367-2s +0-6 +0.20%
Corn May 18 375-6s +1-0 +0.27%
Corn Jul 18 382-2s +1-0 +0.26%
Corn Sep 18 388-4s +0-6 +0.19%
Oats Dec 17 236-0s -2-0 -0.84%
Oats Mar 18 243-2s -2-2 -0.92%
Oats May 18 242-2s -2-2 -0.92%
Oats Jul 18 244-0s -2-0 -0.81%
Oats Sep 18 244-0s -2-0 -0.81%
Wheat Dec 17 449-0s +6-0 +1.35%
Wheat Mar 18 468-0s +5-4 +1.19%
Wheat May 18 481-0s +4-6 +1.00%
Wheat Jul 18 492-2s +4-0 +0.82%
Wheat Sep 18 506-0s +3-6 +0.75%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 17 621-4s -11-0 -1.74%
Spring Wheat Mar 18 634-6s -10-4 -1.63%
Spring Wheat May 18 639-6s -8-4 -1.31%
Spring Wheat Jul 18 640-6s -7-2 -1.12%
Spring Wheat Sep 18 630-0s -3-4 -0.55%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 17 446-0s +4-0 +0.90%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 18 463-6s +4-4 +0.98%
Hard Red Wheat May 18 476-6s +4-2 +0.90%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 18 492-2s +4-2 +0.87%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 18 511-0s +4-2 +0.84%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade
Live Cattle Oct 17 107.750s +0.825 +0.77%
Live Cattle Dec 17 112.825s +1.050 +0.94%
Live Cattle Feb 18 116.750s +1.000 +0.86%
Feeder Cattle Sep 17 150.225s +1.425 +0.96%
Feeder Cattle Oct 17 150.650s +1.050 +0.70%
Feeder Cattle Nov 17 150.725s +1.250 +0.84%
Lean Hogs Oct 17 60.975s +1.950 +3.30%
Lean Hogs Dec 17 58.475s +1.950 +3.45%
Lean Hogs Feb 18 64.100s +1.750 +2.81%
