Canola stuck to its guns Monday, with futures staying above $500 per tonne and breaking from the ever so slight weakness seen in soybeans and associated products.
Wheat contracts weakened.
Canola has been stronger than most crops in the past few weeks, not rising or making new highs but staying in the higher reaches of its range and avoiding the weakening seen in other crops.
“Really we’re just turning around in a range here,” said Jon Driedger of FarmLink Marketing. Heavy soybean stocks, adequate world oilseed supplies and tight canola stocks “equal rangebound,” said Driedger.
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Feed Grains Weekly: Price likely to keep stepping back
As the harvest in southern Alberta presses on, a broker said that is one of the factors pulling feed prices lower in the region. Darcy Haley, vice-president of Ag Value Brokers in Lethbridge, added that lower cattle numbers in feedlots, plentiful amounts of grass for cattle to graze and a lacklustre export market also weighed on feed prices.
There is good carry in the market until March, then little from March to July.
The January contract closed at $507.90 today, $5.90 over the November contract. March had a $9.70 premium over November.
Driedger said he reads that more as stronger demand for March, providing a premium over deferred months, rather than a sign of weak summer demand.
Wheat prices weakened under technical pressure and the ever present reality of abundant world stocks.
On Thursday Statistics Canada comes out with its first estimate of 2017-18 crop production. As always people will say StatsCan missed this and that and that things have changed since the survey was done, and that farmers lied to them about how good the crop in their fields actually looked.
Others will say that the market has to assume those numbers are relatively accurate and should be traded upon, because “those are the numbers we’ve got.”
Then we’ll get back to watching the weather.
CROP CONDITION
The USDA after the close of trading boosted good-to-excellent U.S. soybean crop conditions and left corn crop ratings unchanged. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected soy ratings to stay steady and corn conditions to increase slightly.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.30 US$46.57 per barrel. Torrential rain following Hurricane Harvey has closed several large U.S. Gulf Coast oil refineries, temporarily reducing the demand for crude oil.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US79.94 cents, down from 80.12 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2509.
The TSX composite closed at 15,052.03 down jus 3.96 points or 0.03 percent.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.27 points, or 0.02 percent, to close at 21,808.4, the S&P 500 gained 1.19 points, or 0.05 percent, to 2,444.24.
The Nasdaq Composite added 17.37 points, or 0.28 percent, to 6,283.02
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 17 502.00s +1.10 +0.22%
Canola Jan 18 507.90s +1.00 +0.20%
Canola Mar 18 512.30s +0.80 +0.16%
Canola May 18 513.80s +0.80 +0.16%
Canola Jul 18 514.60s +1.10 +0.21%
Milling Wheat Oct 17 249.00s -3.00 -1.19%
Milling Wheat Dec 17 252.00s -3.00 -1.18%
Milling Wheat Mar 18 259.00s -3.00 -1.15%
Durum Wheat Oct 17 306.00s unch unch
Durum Wheat Dec 17 307.00s unch unch
Durum Wheat Mar 18 300.00s unch unch
Barley Oct 17 145.00s unch unch
Barley Dec 17 148.00s unch unch
Barley Mar 18 151.00s unch unch
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.
Chicago
Soybeans Sep 17 935-2s -3-6 -0.40%
Soybeans Jan 18 950-2s -3-2 -0.34%
Soybeans Mar 18 959-2s -3-0 -0.31%
Soybeans May 18 967-2s -3-0 -0.31%
Soybean Meal Sep 17 295.5s -0.9 -0.30%
Soybean Meal Oct 17 297.2s -0.7 -0.23%
Soybean Meal Dec 17 299.4s -0.6 -0.20%
Soybean Oil Sep 17 34.59s -0.02 -0.06%
Soybean Oil Oct 17 34.71s -0.01 -0.03%
Soybean Oil Dec 17 34.96s +0.01 +0.03%
Corn Sep 17 336-0s -2-6 -0.81%
Corn Mar 18 364-0s -2-4 -0.68%
Corn May 18 371-2s -2-4 -0.67%
Corn Jul 18 378-0s -2-0 -0.53%
Oats Sep 17 238-4s -2-6 -1.14%
Oats Dec 17 251-6s -1-2 -0.49%
Oats Mar 18 257-0s +0-2 +0.10%
Oats May 18 257-2s +1-2 +0.49%
Oats Jul 18 250-2s +0-4 +0.20%
Wheat Sep 17 400-0s -9-4 -2.32%
Wheat Dec 17 428-0s -7-2 -1.67%
Wheat May 18 466-0s -6-4 -1.38%
Wheat Jul 18 479-4s -6-0 -1.24%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 17 644-6s -5-6 -0.88%
Spring Wheat Dec 17 664-2s -5-0 -0.75%
Spring Wheat Mar 18 670-4s -4-6 -0.70%
Spring Wheat May 18 665-0s -4-2 -0.64%
Spring Wheat Jul 18 658-4s -5-2 -0.79%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 17 396-6s -7-6 -1.92%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 18 444-0s -6-4 -1.44%
Hard Red Wheat May 18 458-2s -6-2 -1.35%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 18 476-4s -6-4 -1.35%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade
Live Cattle Aug 17 106.200s +0.250 +0.24%
Live Cattle Oct 17 108.375s +1.450 +1.36%
Live Cattle Dec 17 111.375s +1.450 +1.32%
Feeder Cattle Aug 17 142.425s +1.050 +0.74%
Feeder Cattle Sep 17 145.875s +2.950 +2.06%
Feeder Cattle Oct 17 146.400s +3.450 +2.41%
Lean Hogs Oct 17 61.625s -1.450 -2.30%
Lean Hogs Dec 17 57.575s -1.375 -2.33%
Lean Hogs Feb 18 62.475s -1.325 -2.08%
