Harvest pressures canola, U.S. crop tour indicates ample supply

Canola futures drifted lower on Friday, wrapping up a down week for the oilseed.

November closed at $500.90 per tonne, down $3.80 on the day.

On the week, the contract fell $5.80.

Generally good harvest weather in Western Canada weighed on canola today as did lower soybean and soy oil futures.

The next seven days are expected to be mostly dry across the Prairies.

EXPORTS AND CRUSH

The crop year is still young, but canola exports are running a little ahead of last year at this point.

Canola shipments to Aug. 20 total 461,300 tonnes, up from 402,000 tonnes last year at the same point.

The canola crush total to Aug. 23 is 454,704 tonnes, down from 475,517 tonnes last year.

Crushers this week were operating at only about 50 percent capacity as old crop supply is tight and not much new crop is available yet.

U.S. MARKETS

There was little movement in American markets today.

After the close, the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour posted its findings.

It pegged the U.S. soy crop at 4.331 billion bushels, down from the August USDA forecast of 4.381 billion.

Its corn forecast was 13.953 billion bu., down from USDA’s forecast of 14.153 billion bu.

The numbers are similar enough to the USDA’s that they won’t shakeup the market much.

DURUM

Now that combines are rolling in Canada, the durum market is coming off its highs.

According to PDQinfo.ca No. 1 CWAD 13.0 protein in southeastern Saskatchewan peaked at almost $330 cash per tonne Aug. 11 and is now down to around $302.

In southwestern Saskatchewan at around the same time the peak was around $311 and the price has now fallen to about $301.

Saskatchewan Agriculture said that as of Aug. 21, 14 percent of the durum crop was harvested.

A Reuters poll of trade estimates ahead of the Statistics Canada farmer survey next week showed a range of durum production forecasts from 4.2 to 5.4 million tonnes for an average of 4.9 million.

Last year’s crop was 7.76 million.

HURRICANE HARVEY

This powerful storm is expected to deliver torrential rainfall amounts measured in feet, not inches, to the Texas Gulf coast. The region is not a major grain shipper like New Orleans, which should miss the brunt of the storm.

For now the heavy rain appears to be limited to eastern Texas and Louisiana. If some rain moves farther inland to western Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas it would likely be welcome in advance of the winter wheat planting season.

INDIA MONSOON

The summer monsoon has turned dry in key agricultural provinces of India in the last couple of weeks.

However rain is expected to pick up in these areas in the next two weeks, reviving prospects for the summer crop and helping to fill reservoirs needed for irrigation of the winter crop.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 44 cents US$47.87 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US80.12 cents, up from 79.81 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2481.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed 20.17 points, or 0.13 percent, lower at 15,055.99.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 30.27 points, or 0.14 percent, to end at 21,813.67, the S&P 500 gained 4.08 points, or 0.17 percent, to 2,443.05 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 5.68 points, or 0.09 percent, to 6,265.64.

For the week, the TSX gained 0.7 percent, the Dow rose 0.65 percent, the S&P 500 gained 0.72 percent and the Nasdaq climbed 0.79 percent.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 17   500.90s   -3.80   -0.75%

Canola Jan 18   506.90s   -3.30   -0.65%

Canola Mar 18   511.50s   -2.60   -0.51%

Canola May 18   513.00s   -2.40   -0.47%

Canola Jul 18   513.50s   -2.50   -0.48%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 17   251.00s   +4.00   +1.62%

Milling Wheat Dec 17   254.00s   +4.00   +1.60%

Milling Wheat Mar 18   261.00s   +4.00   +1.56%

 

Durum Wheat Oct 17   306.00s   unch   unch

Durum Wheat Dec 17  307.00s   unch   unch

Durum Wheat Mar 18   295.00s   unch   unch

 

Barley Oct 17   145.00s   unch   unch

Barley Dec 17   148.00s   unch   unch

Barley Mar 18   151.00s   unch   unch

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Sep 17   939-0s   -2-2   -0.24%

Soybeans Nov 17   944-4s   -2-0   -0.21%

Soybeans Jan 18   953-4s   -1-6   -0.18%

Soybeans Mar 18   962-2s   -1-6   -0.18%

Soybeans May 18   970-2s   -1-4   -0.15%

 

Soybean Meal Sep 17   296.4s   -1.2   -0.40%

Soybean Meal Oct 17   297.9s   -1.1   -0.37%

Soybean Meal Dec 17   300.0s   -0.9   -0.30%

 

Soybean Oil Sep 17   34.61s   -0.17   -0.49%

Soybean Oil Oct 17   34.72s   -0.18   -0.52%

Soybean Oil Dec 17   34.95s   -0.18   -0.51%

 

Corn Sep 17   338-6s   -3-2   -0.95%

Corn Dec 17   353-4s   -2-6   -0.77%

Corn Mar 18   366-4s   -2-2   -0.61%

Corn May 18   373-6s   -1-6   -0.47%

Corn Jul 18   380-0s   -1-4   -0.39%

 

Oats Sep 17   241-2s   +2-0   +0.84%

Oats Dec 17   253-0s   +0-6   +0.30%

Oats Mar 18   256-6s   +1-0   +0.39%

Oats May 18   256-0s   +1-6   +0.69%

Oats Jul 18   249-6s   +1-2   +0.50%

 

Wheat Sep 17   409-4s   +0-4   +0.12%

Wheat Dec 17   435-2s   +0-6   +0.17%

Wheat Mar 18   458-2s   +1-0   +0.22%

Wheat May 18   472-4s   +0-6   +0.16%

Wheat Jul 18   485-4s   +0-4   +0.10%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 17   650-4s   unch   unch

Spring Wheat Dec 17   669-2s   +0-4   +0.07%

Spring Wheat Mar 18   675-2s   +2-2   +0.33%

Spring Wheat May 18   669-2s   +2-6   +0.41%

Spring Wheat Jul 18   663-6s   +3-4   +0.53%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Sep 17   404-4s   -1-0   -0.25%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 17   432-2s   -1-0   -0.23%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 18   450-4s   -1-2   -0.28%

Hard Red Wheat May 18   464-4s   -1-4   -0.32%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18   483-0s   -1-0   -0.21%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Aug 17   105.950s   unch   unch

Live Cattle Oct 17   106.925s   +0.100   +0.09%

Live Cattle Dec 17   109.925s   +0.125   +0.11%

 

Feeder Cattle Aug 17   141.375s   -0.225   -0.16%

Feeder Cattle Sep 17   142.925s   +0.750   +0.53%

Feeder Cattle Oct 17   142.950s   +0.550   +0.39%

 

Lean Hogs Oct 17   63.075s   -0.700   -1.10%

Lean Hogs Dec 17   58.950s   -0.300   -0.51%

Lean Hogs Feb 18   63.800s   -0.100   -0.16%

 

 

 

 

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