Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — In an unexpected move, Argentina has seriously disrupted any possible new crop soybean purchases to be made by China from the United States, said analyst Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor Inc. in Hinsdale, Ill.
Just as the North American soybean industry was pinning its hopes on a new China-U.S. trade deal, as of Sept. 22 Argentina has temporarily eliminated its agricultural export tax until Oct. 31. Cordonnier said the tax had been 26 per cent.
“This was a complete surprise. No one saw this,” said Cordonnier. “Traders in Argentina are saying this a bomb that no one anticipated.”
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“Milei needs dollars,” he said of Argentine President Javier Milei, whose government is looking for fresh revenues.
Cordonnier estimated Argentine farmers are currently holding 20 million tonnes of soybeans along with 12 million tonnes of corn.
“China now has a new source of cheap soybeans,” he added.
Presently, China continues to buy soybeans from Brazil “like crazy” he said, noting several trade participants believe China has enough already to get through to the end of December. Cordonnier said Brazil’s new crop is not due to become available until February, and China’s six million tonnes of reserves could be enough to get through December to February without needing to import from the U.S.
However, Cordonnier said if China is looking to strike a trade deal with the U.S., it would purchase some soybeans as a sign of good faith. So far in 2025/26, China has yet to openly make any U.S. soybean purchases.
“This is the first time in recent memory that China has not purchased any new crop U.S. soybeans,” the analyst said.
China is the world’s largest soybean importer, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture projecting that country’s total 2025/26 soybean purchases at 112 million tonnes.
Cordonnier pointed out that U.S. soybean growers have found themselves in a very serious situation with China not looking to buy from them. Trade relations between the two countries took a turn for the worse after the Trump administration imposed stiff tariffs on all imports from China.
“(U.S. farmers) have been petitioning the Trump administration, ‘you gotta do something here.’ Trump demanded China double, triple or quadruple their soybean purchases and they have not done a thing as for new soybean purchases,” Cordonnier explained.
