Today’s a grey, cold day. I hear widespread reports of a killing frost snuffing out the hopes for immature crops across the prairies. And I’m about to fly across western Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan – acreas hit hard by bad seeding and harvesting conditions.
It could be a dreary day, so I’m going to think only about happy, cheery, positive things, not linger on the negative.
Here’s a happy thing, if you have an oats crop to sell:
That’s a heck of a rally. I’m going to forget about the fact that it’s inspired by the widespread oat crop devastation in Western Canada and instead think about how gosh-darned happy I’d be if I had three full bins of oats and hopes of going to Vegas.
Here’s another happy thing: Jeffrey Kennedy’s wheat market outlook.
Jeffrey Kennedy is a technical analyst with Elliott Wave International, an outfit of which I am particularly fond. They base everything on Elliott Wave analysis, which involves 5/3 wave stuctures, Fibonacci ratios, fractal geometry and other stuff normal humans aren’t interested in. (Personally, I find this stuff fascinating, but from the glazed-over look that takes hold of my wife’s eyes when I try to talk about this stuff at home, I can tell normal people don’t find it quite as engaging.) Jeff’s analysis is entirely technical, so you won’t find him wasting his breath jawboning about what the drought in Russia means.
So I think this stuff if useful and fun to follow because it’s a very complex form of technical analysis and a step beyond Dow theory, and it frees one momentarily from having to worry about the fundamentals.
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Worrisome drop in grain prices
Prices had been softening for most of the previous month, but heading into the Labour Day long weekend, the price drops were startling.
Anyhoo, the reason I bring Jeff’s recent wheat outlook to you today is that it’s just so gosh-darned happy and positive for people who will be selling wheat this year. Check out that bolt of lightning upwards on the chart! $10 per bushel wheat? Why not? And he’s talking Chicago wheat, which is that cruddy winter stuff. HRSW should chart above that.
So, my friends, look upon that chart and feel cheery today. If Jeff’s right – and there is zero guarantee that he is – you’ll be making a lot more from your wheat sales this year than you expected.
If you’re interested in the weird and wacky world of Elliott Wave analysis, you can check out Jeff’s analysis free this week until early Thursday. Go to www.elliottwave.com and check out the Free Week for the Futures Junctures service. There you’ll get both video and text analysis from Jeffrey Kennedy. Â They do this Free Week thing with their various services occaionally as a way to entice subscriptions, so it’s a chance to see some stuff that you’d normally have to pay about $20 per month for.
Well, with that I’m off to Saskatoon, and the annual grand confab of the Western Producer editorial staff. I’ll blab at you from there.
Cya!
