There was a big bounce in the commodity and equity markets yesterday. Maybe it had something to do with a guy called Barack Obama, who looked like he was going to win the U.S. presidential election.
Generally there hasn’t been a big bounce on election day – there was even a drop on Ronald Reagan’s reelection – so the “election day rally” everyone’s been talking about either 1) depends on who’s running; 2) doesn’t really exist as a dependable phenomenon; 3) is totally bogus and any swings up or down are caused by other factors that traders and reporters are too bored to talk about on an exciting day in democratic politics.
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Today, a few hours after the election, there is no signs of a continuing bounce in the equity markets after yesterday’s romp – which booted ag commodities nicely higher right from the open, although they stalled. Maybe that’s because too many Obama-supporting traders spent the night celebrating and don’t have enough coffee in their guts today to buy anything yet. And maybe it’s because John McCain-supporting traders are depressed and listlessly selling off some of their positions.
Or maybe all of this election impact talk is a bunch of bunk and a waste of time and ink.
I’m glad I added to it.
