Here’s a positive view on grain prices from an analyst I was talking with this morning:
“A lot of these grains have bottomed,” Errol Anderson of ProMarket Communications told me.
Referring to the crop prices charts that show a long flat period until now, he said: “That’s a bottom.”
If he’s right, that’ll make a lot of farmers happy. Because the crop markets have been dreary recently, with little to talk about. And a turn to the up would be right in time for a spring rally, which is a traditional feature of the markets year.
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I’m not going to show you any charts of the recent crop markets because they’re rather boring. But I’m going to show you a quite beautiful chart formation on the FTSE today. (It’s a British stock market index.) It’s just a one-day chart and it’s not directly applicable to anything in the commodities, but it’s such a nice example of a curve that I’ve just gotta share it. To me, it looks like a rounding bottom, something I’ve written about before, but only the future and a real technical analyst could tell you if that’s what it is. And since it’s a short term thing, it probably doesn’t matter very much anyway. However, because it’s beautiful, here it is:
Look at that gentle turning of the trend from slightly down, to flat to gently rising! Lovely little curve there.
Is that what we’re about to get in the grains, as the trend goes from downish and then flattish to gently upwards? I don’t know. But if our crop markets started to look like the FTSE today, that’d be nice.
