From what I can tell, pork has rather nicely avoided the resurgence of H1N1 this autumn. Just look at this Chicago lean hog futures chart:
It’d be hard to claim that “swine flu fears” have demolished the market the way they did back in May-June, when lots of chatter around the world about “swine flu” made some connect the new flu strain to pigs, and then to pork, and then made them keep pork out of their shopping cart. Little of this occurred in North America. Demand was fairly good. But regulators overseas in Russia and China and a bunch of other countries jumped on “swine flu” fears and slammed their borders shut to North American pork, causing a huge blockage and glut in the supply chain. That, predictably, smashed prices and the regular spring rally evaporated and prices plunged, causing enough damage to wipe out many farmers who had hung on for two years already of brutal losses.
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Over the summer many of us speculated about whether the inevitable resurgence of H1N1 would lead to further pork avoidance, either by consumers or import regulators. That would just drive the stake deeper into the heart of the pork industry and seemed a likely thing. Fortunately, that didn’t only fail to occur, but we’re in the midst of an extremely rare event – a counterseasonal rally – in which prices haven’t just stayed flat -the fourth quarter of the year is generally the lowest priced time of the year – but have rallied strongly. Even with the exchange rate factored-in, prices are a lot better than they were a couple of months back and profitable prices are available for next summer.
So many of our fears about H1N1 seem to be lifting. Among the general population, H1N1 fears have lifted so greatly that now the loonies are out claiming that the whole pandemic fear was not only overblown, but an evil plot. Have a look at this handdrawn sign I saw stuck-up on all the poster boards along Portage Avenue for about a mile this morning:
I don’t know if this is a bit of urban guerilla art, or a serious attempt to make people believe that all the fears of pandemic this fall were a fiendish conspiracy. I’m not even sure what this sign is suggesting: is it that the “swine flu” itself is a hoax, that the public health campaign is a hoax, that some local guys have put together a new band called “Swine Flu Hoax” but haven’t yet mastered the art of designing concert posters. Certainly, some people in countries like the U.K. are claiming that all the warnings over H1N1 were overblown. And certain loonies are now busily leaping from assumption to assumption to determine that IT WAS ALL A PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANY SCAM!!!! Or: IT’S BEING USED BY A POWERFUL ELITE TO DECLARE MARTIAL LAW AND TAKE CONTROL. Etc.
I must say I’m sorry for all the health authorities and doctors and volunteers at the clinics, all working long hours with little thanks, who are now being accused of being unwitting players in a vast and evil conspiracy. An odd bit of thanks from the population, methinks. Apparently the problem from the conspiracists’ standpoint is that not enough people have died from H1N1, so the whole thing is suspect. How can medical authorities justify all the extreme measures they took when so few have died so far, they ask. This seems a rather silly argument to me, like feeling ripped off because you bought life insurance and didn’t end up dying young. A few thousand more deaths and they’d feel content, apparently . . .
Strange, how popular sentiment shifts. Remember a few weeks ago, when the hockey player kid in Toronto died? Mass fear. Huge lines at vaccine clinics. Now, few people are dying, so we get mass complacency. I’d hate to be a politician or health industry manager and have to try to ride this tempestuous bronco. When I took my two daughters down to the central Winnipeg vaccine clinic for their H1N1 booster last week there was no crowd to fight with, and we were immediately taken into the nurses and to the needles. I guess we’re just weak-minded fraidycats.
The upside for the hog industry, and hog prices, is that far from facing pork-phobia this autumn, pork producers have been escaping unscathed, and the present complacency – as long as it holds – bodes well for this particular danger to pork demand fading into an unpleasant memory of spring 2009.
