Wheat surges higher on short covering

Rain and snow covered a broad belt from Texas to Nebraska on the weekend which was generally considered a benefit for the winter wheat crop that had been suffering for many rainless weeks.

But wheat prices jumped higher Monday on a wave of short covering. Chicago was up almost three percent, Kansas hard red winter was up about 1.5 percent and Minneapolis spring wheat rose a little less than one percent.

Around four inches of rain fell generally, although more fell in spots, causing local flooding.

Speculators had been massively short and felt that constituted an unreasonable risk, opening themselves up to big loses if for some reason the market turned up.

After the market closed, the USDA weekly crop condition report said that nationally, the winter wheat crop had improved slightly from the previous week

The good to excellent rating rose to 57 percent from 56, fair dropped to 34 percent from 35 and poor to very poor was unchanged at nine percent.

Most other crop futures moved little Monday.

Soybeans closed down a few cents on profit taking. Earlier in the day they hit an eight month high as Brazil’s political tempest continued, with a bit of a risk premium entering the market after the gigantic soybean exporter’s government began a process to impeach its tainted-by-corruption president.

May canola closed up $1.90 per tonne at $478.80 and July rose the same to $483.30, supported by soybean oil.

Soy oil rose more than 1.6 percent Monday.

Traders are working their thinking bones hard right now in anticipation of Thursday’s Statistics Canada seeding intentions report. The math is complicated, involving a consideration of profitability comparisons at the end of March, the propensity of farmers to lie to StatsCan, and the fact that the market has changed since the survey was completed.

Stocks had a good day, after crude oil recovered from weekend weakness, giving equities a reason to blow off some anxiety.

The weekend worries were due to a Saudi Arabian refusal to agree to an oil production freeze unless Iran joins the pact. Iran won’t join because it wants to rebuild market share to where it was before sanctions to increase revenues.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 58 cents to US$39.78 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US78.03 cents, down from 77.77 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2815.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2016 478.80 +1.90 +0.40%

Canola Jul 2016 483.30 +1.90 +0.39%

Canola Nov 2016 483.50 +3.80 +0.79%

Canola Jan 2017 488.50 +3.20 +0.66%

Canola Mar 2017 489.50 +2.20 +0.45%

Milling Wheat May 2016 238.00 +1.00 +0.42%

Milling Wheat Jul 2016 237.00 +2.00 +0.85%

Milling Wheat Oct 2016 233.00 +2.00 +0.87%

Durum Wheat May 2016 298.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2016 293.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2016 282.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2016 172.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2016 174.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2016 174.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans May 2016 954.25 -1.75 -0.18%

Soybeans Jul 2016 963 -1.25 -0.13%

Soybeans Aug 2016 965.25 -0.5 -0.05%

Soybeans Sep 2016 965 +0.25 +0.03%

Soybeans Nov 2016 967.25 +0.75 +0.08%

Soybeans Jan 2017 969.5 +0.25 +0.03%

Soybean Meal May 2016 293 -2.9 -0.98%

Soybean Meal Jul 2016 295.7 -2.9 -0.97%

Soybean Meal Aug 2016 296.7 -2.9 -0.97%

Soybean Oil May 2016 33.95 +0.57 +1.71%

Soybean Oil Jul 2016 34.23 +0.59 +1.75%

Soybean Oil Aug 2016 34.34 +0.6 +1.78%

Corn May 2016 381 +2.5 +0.66%

Corn Jul 2016 385 +3 +0.79%

Corn Sep 2016 384.75 +2.5 +0.65%

Corn Dec 2016 390.25 +2 +0.52%

Corn Mar 2017 398.5 +1.5 +0.38%

Oats May 2016 190.75 +1.25 +0.66%

Oats Jul 2016 199 +0.75 +0.38%

Oats Sep 2016 207.25 unch 0.00%

Oats Dec 2016 216.5 -0.5 -0.23%

Oats Mar 2017 225.25 -0.5 -0.22%

Wheat May 2016 472.75 +13 +2.83%

Wheat Jul 2016 481 +13.5 +2.89%

Wheat Sep 2016 489.75 +12.75 +2.67%

Wheat Dec 2016 505.75 +11.5 +2.33%

Wheat Mar 2017 521.25 +10.75 +2.11%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2016 527.75 +4.25 +0.81%

Spring Wheat Jul 2016 532.5 +4.5 +0.85%

Spring Wheat Sep 2016 540.25 +4 +0.75%

Spring Wheat Dec 2016 551.25 +3.5 +0.64%

Spring Wheat Mar 2017 562.25 +2.75 +0.49%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat May 2016 464.75 +7 +1.53%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 475.5 +7.25 +1.55%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 489.5 +7 +1.45%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 510.75 +7.25 +1.44%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 525.25 +7.5 +1.45%

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