Weak loonie, strong soy, lift canola Wednesday

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Published: February 12, 2015

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Markets adjusted a little on Wednesday following the U.S. Department supply and demand report on Tuesday.

The weaker loonie helped canola edge higher as did the stronger U.S. soy complex.

The big funds are rolling their positions from March into May.

U.S. wheat and soybeans were narrowly higher on Wednesday, rebounding from losses earlier in the session on support from bargain buying and active spread trading.

The report trimmed USDA’s U.S. and global year end stocks forecasts but not enough to seriously change the perception of ample supply.

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The Canadian Federation of Agriculture policy summit examined several topics the industry is dealing with right now, including trade, and saw a major commodity group rejoin the organization

It increased the forecast for U.S. and global wheat year end stocks.

Corn futures trimmed losses today but still finished lower at the Chicago Board of Trade, weighed down by the largest stockpiles of grain-based ethanol in more than two years.

Bull spreading in soybean futures was linked to gains in U.S. cash markets, with shippers on the U.S. Gulf Coast eager for supplies before global buyers turn attention to record harvests in South America.

“Soybeans are seeing most of the volume in spreads,” said independent trader Ken Smithmier.

“Firmer soy basis and the positions rolling are helping to spike the (March-May soy spread).”

CBOT March soybeans gained 8-3/4 cents to $9.77 per bushel, recovering after falling to a one-week low of $9.66 earlier in the session. March futures’ discount to the May contract shrank to 3-3/4 cents, with the spread trading at its widest levels since June.

It also was the fourth day of the five-session Goldman roll, in which index funds roll long positions from nearby contracts into deferred months.

CBOT March wheat was up four cents at $5.25-3/4, while CBOT March corn edged 2-1/4 cents lower to $3.85-3/4.

Investors who had squared positions ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. Department of Agriculture monthly crop report were resuming dealings, while some traders also were exiting short bets.

Still, USDA forecasts for big global stockpiles of wheat, corn and soybeans were likely to anchor gains.

“Soybeans are seeing some support today from the USDA’s lowered forecasts of U.S. soybean stocks plus rising demand for U.S. soybeans in export markets,” said Frank Rijkers, agrifood economist at ABN AMRO Bank.

“However, the recovery in soybean prices is limited with the USDA still forecasting large world supplies.”

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.18 to US$48.84 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US79.15 cents, down from US79.82 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2635.

The uncertainty over the Greek debt negotiations in Europe weighed on stock markets. After the close, there were indications that there was progress on how Greece can handle its debt.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 6.62 points, or 0.04 percent, at 17,862.14, the S&P 500 lost 0.06 points to 2,068.53 and the Nasdaq Composite added 13.54 points, or 0.28 percent, to close at 4,801.18.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 38.98 points, or 0.26 percent, at 15,151.50.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2015       461.60       +4.00       +0.87%

Canola May 2015       457.90       +4.40       +0.97%

Canola Jul 2015       454.40       +4.70       +1.05%

Canola Nov 2015       444.60       +4.80       +1.09%

Canola Jan 2016       446.10       +4.80       +1.09%

 

Milling Wheat Mar 2015       225.00       +2.00       +0.90%

Milling Wheat May 2015       234.00       +1.00       +0.43%

Milling Wheat Jul 2015       237.00       +1.00       +0.42%

 

Durum Wheat Mar 2015       333.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2015       323.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2015       313.00       unch       0.00%

 

Barley Mar 2015       195.00       unch       0.00%

Barley May 2015       197.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Jul 2015       199.00       unch       0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 2015       977.75       +8.75       +0.90%

Soybeans May 2015       980.75       +6.5       +0.67%

Soybeans Jul 2015       985.75       +6       +0.61%

Soybeans Aug 2015       984.5       +5.25       +0.54%

Soybeans Sep 2015       970       +5.5       +0.57%

Soybeans Nov 2015       959.75       +6       +0.63%

 

Soybean Meal Mar 2015       329.6       +2.7       +0.83%

Soybean Meal May 2015       322.2       +2.4       +0.75%

Soybean Meal Jul 2015       319.3       +2.3       +0.73%

 

Soybean Oil Mar 2015       31.75       +0.3       +0.95%

Soybean Oil May 2015       31.96       +0.3       +0.95%

Soybean Oil Jul 2015       32.14       +0.29       +0.91%

 

Corn Mar 2015       385.75       -2.25       -0.58%

Corn May 2015       393.75       -2.5       -0.63%

Corn Jul 2015       401.25       -2.5       -0.62%

Corn Sep 2015       407.25       -2.75       -0.67%

Corn Dec 2015       415.25       -3.25       -0.78%

 

Oats Mar 2015       273.5       -1.5       -0.55%

Oats May 2015       275.75       -2.75       -0.99%

Oats Jul 2015       278.5       -2.25       -0.80%

Oats Sep 2015       283.25       -2.25       -0.79%

Oats Dec 2015       285.25       -0.75       -0.26%

 

Wheat Mar 2015       525.75       +4       +0.77%

Wheat May 2015       523.75       +1.5       +0.29%

Wheat Jul 2015       527       +0.75       +0.14%

Wheat Sep 2015       534.5       +0.25       +0.05%

Wheat Dec 2015       548       +0.5       +0.09%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2015       576       +6       +1.05%

Spring Wheat May 2015       578       +5       +0.87%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015       582.25       +2.75       +0.47%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015       589.5       +2.25       +0.38%

Spring Wheat Dec 2015       599.25       +2.75       +0.46%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015       559.25       +5.25       +0.95%

Hard Red Wheat May 2015       560.5       +4       +0.72%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015       564.75       +3.5       +0.62%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015       575       +3.25       +0.57%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015       589.5       +3       +0.51%

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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