Canola edged slightly lower on Monday, but held on better than soybeans, which fell about one percent on forecasts for drier harvest weather in the Midwest.
The drier weather will be welcome after parts of the northern Midwest faced heavy rain and flooding since last week.
Rain in Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Friday and Saturday delayed the Prairie harvest.
Crude oil rose largely as a result of the American dollar weakening against some currencies. However, the Canadian dollar also sagged.
Harvest pressure weighed down corn and wheat.
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U.S. livestock: Cattle futures end lower on profit-taking, technicals and flat cash prices
Chicago Mercantile Exchange cattle futures fell for a third consecutive day on Thursday in profit-taking and technical selling setback following recent highs and amid some weaker-than-expected cash market sales this week.
Canola futures have been supported recently by a vegetable oil rally and some analysts think the rally can continue or at least the gains be held.
“It’s purely driven by demand, which is good,” said Errol Anderson, editor of the ProMarket Wire.
“If it does drop it will be supported by buyers. It’s reasonably firm.”
While canola’s gains have been weaker than soybean oil’s 10 percent rally, the gains in canola futures from just below $450 per tonne at the start of August to around $470 near the end of September seemed to at least temporarily end the long rout that began in mid-June.
Analysts say a host of factors have caused vegetable oil crop prices to rally, including another weak monsoon in India, crusher-stalling typhoons in China, continuing strong Chinese demand for vegetable oils amidst temporarily disrupted production and bad harvest weather in the U.S. and Canada.
Palm oil prices have led the rally, but soybean oil and soybeans have followed, dragging canola along behind.
At least four southeastern Chinese canola crushing plants suspended production last week because of a typhoon, according to Shanghai JC Intelligence Co. That has caused Chinese vegetable oil stocks to become tighter.
The closures were in Fujian province, but caused a rally further afield, with Guangxi and Jiangsu canola prices said to have risen four percent, up 100 yuan to 2,480 per tonne, or to about $470 per tonne.
However, the closures hinder demand for raw canola exports, since there is less crushing capacity available.
Chinese vegetable oil demand is likely to remain strong and supplies tighter, since the Chinese government isn’t expected to release any of its large canola stocks until next June, according to JC Intelligence.
Demand is also good outside of China, with stocks declining.
“The big thing is that palm oil has been strong (with) good demand,” said Mike Krueger of The Money Farm in Fargo, North Dakota.
“The world vegetable oil situation just continues to tighten up.”
India has recently helped spur demand, lowering its import duty on imported vegetable oils.
But Anderson said the steady Chinese demand has been central to the recent rally.
“Palm has been the lead. That’s Chinese demand,” said Anderson.
Markets were subdued ahead of this year’s first presidential televised debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $1.45 to US$45.93 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.77 cents, down from 75.96 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3197.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index fell 78.47 points, or 0.53 percent, at 14,619.46.
The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 0.91 percent to end at 18,094.83 points and the S&P 500 lost 0.86 percent to 2,146.1.
The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.91 percent to finish at 5,257.49.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2016 467.40 -0.90 -0.19%
Canola Jan 2017 474.60 -0.50 -0.11%
Canola Mar 2017 479.90 -0.60 -0.12%
Canola May 2017 484.90 -0.60 -0.12%
Canola Jul 2017 488.40 -0.30 -0.06%
Milling Wheat Oct 2016 215.00 -3.00 -1.38%
Milling Wheat Dec 2016 217.00 -3.00 -1.36%
Milling Wheat Mar 2017 221.00 -3.00 -1.34%
Durum Wheat Oct 2016 274.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2016 275.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2017 280.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2016 132.50 -0.50 -0.38%
Barley Dec 2016 132.50 -0.50 -0.38%
Barley Mar 2017 134.50 -0.50 -0.37%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2016 945.25 -8.00 -0.84%
Soybeans Jan 2017 951.50 -8.25 -0.86%
Soybeans Mar 2017 957.25 -8.00 -0.83%
Soybeans May 2017 963.00 -7.50 -0.77%
Soybeans Jul 2017 968.00 -7.75 -0.79%
Soybeans Aug 2017 967.00 -8.50 -0.87%
Soybean Meal Oct 2016 297.60 -5.30 -1.75%
Soybean Meal Dec 2016 297.60 -4.60 -1.52%
Soybean Meal Jan 2017 298.50 -4.40 -1.45%
Soybean Oil Oct 2016 33.12 -0.23 -0.69%
Soybean Oil Dec 2016 33.35 -0.25 -0.74%
Soybean Oil Jan 2017 33.59 -0.22 -0.65%
Corn Dec 2016 329.00 -6.25 -1.86%
Corn Mar 2017 339.00 -6.00 -1.74%
Corn May 2017 346.00 -5.75 -1.63%
Corn Jul 2017 352.75 -6.00 -1.67%
Corn Sep 2017 359.75 -5.75 -1.57%
Oats Dec 2016 173.25 -3.50 -1.98%
Oats Mar 2017 184.75 -2.75 -1.47%
Oats May 2017 189.75 -3.25 -1.68%
Oats Jul 2017 197.25 -3.50 -1.74%
Oats Sep 2017 198.25 -36.75 -15.64%
Wheat Dec 2016 396.00 -7.75 -1.92%
Wheat Mar 2017 419.75 -7.00 -1.64%
Wheat May 2017 433.75 -6.75 -1.53%
Wheat Sep 2017 457.50 -5.25 -1.13%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2016 494.50 -8.50 -1.69%
Spring Wheat Mar 2017 502.00 -8.00 -1.57%
Spring Wheat May 2017 509.50 -7.00 -1.36%
Spring Wheat Jul 2017 517.75 -9.00 -1.71%
Spring Wheat Sep 2017 527.00 -8.75 -1.63%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 414.00 -6.75 -1.60%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 430.75 -6.75 -1.54%
Hard Red Wheat May 2017 440.75 -7.00 -1.56%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 450.75 -6.50 -1.42%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 464.25 -7.25 -1.54%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Oct 2016 106.82 -0.50 -0.47%
Live Cattle (P) Dec 2016 106.12 -0.76 -0.71%
Live Cattle (P) Feb 2017 106.30 -0.95 -0.89%
Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2016 136.05 -0.67 -0.49%
Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2016 131.05 -1.33 -1.00%
Feeder Cattle (P) Nov 2016 127.88 -1.84 -1.42%
Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2016 53.05 -0.92 -1.70%
Lean Hogs (P) Dec 2016 48.60 -0.15 -0.31%
Lean Hogs (P) Feb 2017 52.95 -0.17 -0.32%
