Oilseed markets were mostly up on Thursday thanks to a strong weekly export sales report from the USDA.
The strong pace of export sales this year has traders expecting that the USDA’s next report on Monday Feb. 10 might trim its forecast of year-end U.S. soybean stocks.
Although weekly U.S. corn sales topped expectations, traders were still nervous as China cancelled more orders over the issue of unapproved genetically modified varieties. Corn closed little changed.
Soy oil has been making strong gains this week on technical factors after bouncing off a 3.5-year low last week. March soy oil has rallied 2.7 percent so far this week.
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Chicago Board of Trade corn futures firmed on Friday on support from strong international demand, concerns over disease in the U.S. Midwest and technical support, analysts said.
Weekly export sales of soy seed, meal and oil were either at the high end of or topped pre report guesses.
The strong soy complex helped lift canola, with the March contract rising $1.50 to $428.50 a tonne, although the logistics problems continue to keep a lid on canola’s price. For a while the contract traded above its 30-day moving average. If in the next few days it closes above the average then that would likely trigger more short covering, Reuters reported.
Vegetable oil crops were also supported by dry weather affecting late seeded Brazilian soybeans. Also, palm oil rose.
A Reuters survey of planters and traders showed that Malaysian palm oil production in January likely fell to 1.52 million tonnes, down 8.8 percent from December as trees enter a resting period which results in smaller yields.
The poll also showed that end-stocks are expected to ease for the first time in seven months, although sluggish export demand would curb the drop and likely keep inventories in the second-largest producer little changed at 1.98 million tonnes.
The strong U.S. soy exports indicate that international buyers are not yet rushing to South American supply. Partly that is because Argentina’s farmers are hanging on to their old crop beans as a hedge again currency devaluation. Also Brazil’s harvest is not well advanced yet and there are memories of last year’s logistics tie-ups that lead to hundreds of ships waiting to take on soybeans at Brazilian ports.
March oats posted a new record high of $4.6325 per bushel at one point because of the logistics problems of getting Canadian product to the end users in the U.S. March closed at $4.565, up 13.25 cents.
Chicago wheat dipped on profit taking after a multi day rally, but Minneapolis March spring wheat still posted a small gain. That rise also reflected Canada’s transportation problems.
Weekly U.S. wheat sales were near the top end of analysts’ forecasts.
There was more mixed news about the American economy with one report showing the number of new claims for unemployment benefits falling more than expected last week, but another report showing a slump in U.S. exports in December.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Mar 2014 428.50 +1.50 +0.35%
Canola May 2014 438.70 +1.20 +0.27%
Canola Jul 2014 447.90 +1.40 +0.31%
Canola Nov 2014 462.90 +1.60 +0.35%
Canola Jan 2015 468.40 +1.60 +0.34%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 186.00 +2.00 +1.09%
Milling Wheat May 2014 186.00 -2.00 -1.06%
Milling Wheat Jul 2014 188.00 -2.00 -1.05%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 245.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2014 249.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 126.50 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Mar 2014 1325.75 +9.5 +0.72%
Soybeans May 2014 1311.75 +12.25 +0.94%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1292.75 +12 +0.94%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1246 +9.5 +0.77%
Soybeans Sep 2014 1170 +7.75 +0.67%
Soybeans Nov 2014 1118.5 +6 +0.54%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014 446 +4 +0.90%
Soybean Meal May 2014 426.9 +4.1 +0.97%
Soybean Meal Jul 2014 415 +3.4 +0.83%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014 38.66 +0.43 +1.12%
Soybean Oil May 2014 38.96 +0.45 +1.17%
Soybean Oil Jul 2014 39.26 +0.44 +1.13%
Corn Mar 2014 443 -0.25 -0.06%
Corn May 2014 448.5 +1 +0.22%
Corn Jul 2014 453.5 +1.25 +0.28%
Corn Sep 2014 455.25 +1.25 +0.28%
Corn Dec 2014 458.25 +1.25 +0.27%
Oats Mar 2014 456.5 +13.25 +2.99%
Oats May 2014 386.25 +5.5 +1.44%
Oats Jul 2014 346.25 +4.5 +1.32%
Oats Sep 2014 331.25 +5.25 +1.61%
Oats Dec 2014 308.5 +3.25 +1.06%
Wheat Mar 2014 580.75 -6.75 -1.15%
Wheat May 2014 582.25 -7 -1.19%
Wheat Jul 2014 586 -7.25 -1.22%
Wheat Sep 2014 594.25 -7.25 -1.21%
Wheat Dec 2014 607 -7.25 -1.18%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 638.25 +8.75 +1.39%
Spring Wheat May 2014 618 -3.5 -0.56%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 622.25 -5.25 -0.84%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 629 -6.5 -1.02%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 642 -6.25 -0.96%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 648.75 -2.5 -0.38%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 637 -4.25 -0.66%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 628.5 -4.5 -0.71%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 636.25 -4.25 -0.66%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2014 647.25 -5 -0.77%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 46 cents at $97.84 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 90.37 cents US, up from 90.08 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1066 Cdn.
Late in the trading day the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were all up a little more than 1.1 percent. The Toronto Stock Exchange composite was up 1.15 percent.
