A big weekly U.S. soybean export number had more force in the canola market today than a bearish production number from Statistics Canada.
Surprisingly, canola closed the day up a fraction even with a Statistics Canada report that raised the year’s canola crop to 15.555 million tonnes, up about 1.5 million tonnes from the September forecast.
Traders had expected an increase, but the move up exceeded the range of pre report outlooks from analysts and traders by about one million tonnes.
The full Statistics Canada story is available here: StatsCan wheat, canola estimates larger than expected.
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Chicago Board of Trade corn futures extended slight gains on Tuesday as short covering and bargain buying continued to support a rebound from contract lows reached during the previous session.
Also, canola had fallen for the previous six sessions, so the market might have felt that it had already reflected the larger canola crop.
Another factor supporting canola is strong demand and slow farmer selling. Many farmers have sold enough canola to meet their cash flow needs and have shut their bins until the new year.
The January contract is at a premium to March, indicating good current demand.
Based on the old forecast from the September report of 14.08 million tonnes of canola, Agriculture Canada had forecast ending stocks at a fairly tight 900,000 tonnes.
It will be interesting to see how Agriculture Canada adjusts its domestic and export demand numbers to arrive at a new year-end stocks number.
Soybeans rose today on good weekly U.S. export sales. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said soybean sales were a better-than-expected 1.180 million tonnes. Soybean prices have fallen from the highs posted in mid November and are now more attractive to importers.
Soymeal export sales also topped expectations, at 226,800 tonnes for the 2014-15 crop year.
Soybean sales are exceeding the pace needed to hit the USDA’s existing forecast for annual sales, leading to expectations that it will increase its export figure in its supply and demand report next week.
Soyoil futures eased, with profit-taking pressuring prices following a 2.2 percent rally on Wednesday.
Corn futures rallied about two percent mostly on strong weekly export sales and a lack of farmer selling.
Corn export sales were 1.170 million tonnes, topping the range of market expectations.
U.S. wheat export sales came in at the low end of expectations.
Wheat was also pressured by Statistics Canada’s estimate of all wheat production, which exceeded expectations.
However, wheat futures ended mixed, with Chicago soft wheat higher, supported by corn, but hard red winter and hard red spring futures lower.
Minneapolis spring wheat for December was down 1.9 percent and March was down 0.4 percent.
There is an inverse in the Minneapolis wheat market with December carrying about a five-cent premium over March.
Reuters reported that severe frosts in Ukraine in recent weeks have not harmed the winter wheat crop there.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York down 57 cents to US$66.81 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US87.93 cents, down from 88.03 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.1373.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 284.11 points, or 1.93 percent, at 14,469.95.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 16.31 points, or 0.09 percent, to 17,896.31, the S&P 500 lost 2.73 points, or 0.13 percent, to 2,071.6 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 5.04 points, or 0.11 percent, to 4,769.44.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jan 2015 412.70 +0.40 +0.10%
Canola Mar 2015 410.90 +0.60 +0.15%
Canola May 2015 412.70 +1.20 +0.29%
Canola Jul 2015 413.80 +1.30 +0.32%
Canola Nov 2015 410.50 +1.50 +0.37%
Milling Wheat Dec 2014 231.00 -1.00 -0.43%
Milling Wheat Mar 2015 238.00 -1.00 -0.42%
Milling Wheat May 2015 241.00 -1.00 -0.41%
Durum Wheat Dec 2014 356.50 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2015 357.50 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2015 357.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2014 174.00 +2.00 +1.16%
Barley Mar 2015 177.00 +2.00 +1.14%
Barley May 2015 179.00 +2.00 +1.13%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jan 2015 1010.5 +12.25 +1.23%
Soybeans Mar 2015 1017.25 +12 +1.19%
Soybeans May 2015 1023.75 +11.5 +1.14%
Soybeans Jul 2015 1028.75 +11.5 +1.13%
Soybeans Aug 2015 1028 +11.25 +1.11%
Soybeans Sep 2015 1007 +10.5 +1.05%
Soybean Meal Dec 2014 385.7 +4.6 +1.21%
Soybean Meal Jan 2015 357.8 +4 +1.13%
Soybean Meal Mar 2015 344.9 +4 +1.17%
Soybean Oil Dec 2014 31.6 -0.26 -0.82%
Soybean Oil Jan 2015 31.7 -0.24 -0.75%
Soybean Oil Mar 2015 31.91 -0.24 -0.75%
Corn Dec 2014 376 +7.25 +1.97%
Corn Mar 2015 389.75 +7.75 +2.03%
Corn Jul 2015 404.75 +7.25 +1.82%
Corn Sep 2015 409 +6.5 +1.61%
Oats Dec 2014 298.75 +3.5 +1.19%
Oats Mar 2015 312 +4.25 +1.38%
Oats May 2015 311.5 +3 +0.97%
Oats Jul 2015 310.25 +2 +0.65%
Oats Sep 2015 309 +2.25 +0.73%
Wheat Dec 2014 599.75 +2.75 +0.46%
Wheat Mar 2015 589.75 +0.25 +0.04%
Wheat May 2015 595 -0.25 -0.04%
Wheat Jul 2015 598.75 -0.25 -0.04%
Wheat Sep 2015 606 +0.25 +0.04%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 623.25 -12.25 -1.93%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015 618.5 -2.75 -0.44%
Spring Wheat May 2015 625.5 -1.5 -0.24%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 633.25 -1 -0.16%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 640.75 -1 -0.16%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014 627.25 -4.5 -0.71%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015 635.5 -4.25 -0.66%
Hard Red Wheat May 2015 638.75 -3.75 -0.58%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 639.75 -2.75 -0.43%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 649.25 -2.25 -0.35%
