November canola futures closed a dollar shy of the $500 a tonne mark, supported by rising soybeans and good domestic and export demand.
The contract though could not sustainably break above $500 although it peak above during morning trade.
It closed at $499, up $3.30 on the day and up $2.60 from the close the previous Friday.
Whenever the price closes in on $500 it triggers new farmer selling that pressures the price back down.
Soybeans continued to rise on momentum from Thursday’s USDA monthly report that lowered its forecast of domestic soybean yields and trimmed its forecast for U.S. and global year end stocks.
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U.S. soybean futures fell to a 1-1/2 week low on Tuesday as China continued to shun purchases from the United States and as forecasts for improved rains in the coming days reinforced expectations for a sizeable Midwest harvest.
November soybeans closed just above the psychologically important $10 a bushel mark today.
Also, the weekly U.S. exports sales of corn and soybeans were above expectations. However, wheat export sales were less than expected.
The rising soy market and strong weekly exports helped to lift corn futures today.
Wheat also rallied on short covering, even with the disappointing exports and the USDA report that raised world wheat production for 2017-18.
Soy oil rose more than meal today, helping to make up for it lagging behind on Thursday.
Rain continues this weekend in the U.S. Midwest, further delaying the harvest that is already running behind the normal pace.
However, next week drier weather returns.
PRAIRIE WEATHER
In Western Canada, the central and northern Prairies are expected to have a mostly dry weekend, which should allow harvest progress.
Today’s Alberta crop report said south and central regions have almost completed harvest but the northwest region is struggling with only abou t 41 percent in the bin. The northeast is 64 percent complete and the Peace is 72 percent done.
As a whole, Alberta’s canola harvest is 67 percent complete, the report said.
CANOLA CRUSH
Crushers were operating at a near record pace in the most recent week. The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said members crushed 204,820 tonnes in the week to Oct. 11, up about four percent from the week before and only about 3,500 tonnes shy of the record.
That represented 92.4 percent of capacity.
The crush to date is 1.69 tonnes, a little bit behind last year’s pace of 1.74 million tonnes.
EXPORTS
Weekly canola exports rose to 368,800 tonnes, up from 338,400 the week before, according to the Canadian Grain Commission.
For the year to date, canola exports stand at 1.766 million, almost 22 percent ahead of last year at the same time.
After a strong performance to date, wheat exports slowed to 197,900 tonnes, down from 301,400 tonnes the week before.
Still the total so far is 2.906 tonnes, up 13 percent over last year.
Vancouver cleared 14 ships last week, up from 12 the week before. There were 15 ships in the line up, down one from the week before. Thirteen ships were incoming, the same as the week before.
Prince Rupert cleared two ships, same as the week before. Six ships were in the line up, up two from the week before. Two ships were incoming, down from four.
Exports for the year for durum, oats and barley are up from last year, helping to make up for a slower pace of pea and lentil exports.
India had a record pulse crop last year and large imported stocks. Much of those pulses are still available so India’s pulse imports are well down so far this crop year.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 85 cents at US$51.45 per barrel. China’s oil imports running higher than expected and U.S President Donal Trump’s decision to decertify the Iran nuclear deal helped lift oil
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US80.12 cents, down from 80.16 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2482.
U.S. monthly inflation surged on higher gasoline prices brought on the refinery disruptions from hurricanes. But underlying inflation, one energy and food are stripped out, was less than expected.
The Toronto Stock Exchange composte rose 64.97 points or 0.41 percent to 15,807.17
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 44.28 points, or 0.19 percent, to 22,885.29, the S&P 500 gained 4.63 points, or 0.18 percent, to 2,555.56 and the Nasdaq Composite added 19.10 points, or 0.29 percent, to 6,610.61.
For the week, the TSX was up 0.5 percent. its fifth weekly gain. The Dow was up 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 was up 0.2 percent and the Nasdaq rose 0.2 percent.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 17 499.00s +3.30 +0.67%
Canola Jan 18 505.90s +3.40 +0.68%
Canola Mar 18 510.90s +3.50 +0.69%
Canola May 18 513.70s +3.90 +0.77%
Canola Jul 18 514.90s +4.10 +0.80%
Milling Wheat Oct 17 229.00s +1.00 +0.44%
Milling Wheat Dec 17 231.00s unch unch
Milling Wheat Mar 18 237.00s +1.00 +0.42%
Durum Wheat Oct 17 280.00s +1.00 +0.36%
Durum Wheat Dec 17 281.00s unch unch
Durum Wheat Mar 18 286.00s unch unch
Barley Oct 17 145.00s unch unch
Barley Dec 17 148.00s unch unch
Barley Mar 18 151.00s unch unch
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 17 1000-2s +8-2 +0.83%
Soybeans Jan 18 1010-2s +7-6 +0.77%
Soybeans Mar 18 1019-2s +7-2 +0.72%
Soybeans May 18 1028-0s +6-6 +0.66%
Soybeans Jul 18 1035-6s +6-2 +0.61%
Soybean Meal Oct 17 324.5s +1.8 +0.56%
Soybean Meal Dec 17 328.6s +2.3 +0.70%
Soybean Meal Jan 18 330.7s +2.4 +0.73%
Soybean Oil Oct 17 33.49s +0.42 +1.27%
Soybean Oil Dec 17 33.69s +0.41 +1.23%
Soybean Oil Jan 18 33.85s +0.40 +1.20%
Corn Dec 17 352-6s +3-6 +1.07%
Corn Mar 18 366-4s +3-6 +1.03%
Corn May 18 375-2s +3-4 +0.94%
Corn Jul 18 382-4s +3-2 +0.86%
Corn Sep 18 389-2s +3-2 +0.84%
Oats Dec 17 266-6s +5-0 +1.91%
Oats Mar 18 267-2s +3-4 +1.33%
Oats May 18 269-0s +4-2 +1.61%
Oats Jul 18 265-6s +4-6 +1.82%
Oats Sep 18 265-6s +4-6 +1.82%
Wheat Dec 17 439-4s +9-0 +2.09%
Wheat Mar 18 458-0s +8-4 +1.89%
Wheat May 18 470-4s +8-6 +1.89%
Wheat Jul 18 484-2s +9-0 +1.89%
Wheat Sep 18 500-2s +9-0 +1.83%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 17 615-0s +3-6 +0.61%
Spring Wheat Mar 18 629-0s +4-0 +0.64%
Spring Wheat May 18 635-4s +4-0 +0.63%
Spring Wheat Jul 18 640-0s +4-4 +0.71%
Spring Wheat Sep 18 633-2s +4-0 +0.64%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 17 436-2s +10-0 +2.35%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 18 454-4s +10-0 +2.25%
Hard Red Wheat May 18 468-2s +9-4 +2.07%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 18 486-0s +9-2 +1.94%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 18 504-6s +9-2 +1.87%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade
Live Cattle Oct 17 112.825s +0.475 +0.42%
Live Cattle Dec 17 117.125s -0.150 -0.13%
Live Cattle Feb 18 121.075s -0.125 -0.10%
Feeder Cattle Oct 17 154.050s +0.500 +0.33%
Feeder Cattle Nov 17 155.000s +0.450 +0.29%
Feeder Cattle Jan 18 153.050s +0.800 +0.53%
Lean Hogs Oct 17 60.400s -0.300 -0.49%
Lean Hogs Dec 17 62.200s +0.575 +0.93%
Lean Hogs Feb 18 67.450s +0.625 +0.94%
