Canola posts modest gain on week, supported by strong demand

November canola futures closed a dollar shy of the $500 a tonne mark, supported by rising soybeans and good domestic and export demand.

The contract though could not sustainably break above $500 although it peak above during morning trade.

It closed at $499, up $3.30 on the day and up $2.60 from the close the previous Friday.

Whenever the price closes in on $500 it triggers new farmer selling that pressures the price back down.

Soybeans continued to rise on momentum from Thursday’s USDA monthly report that lowered its forecast of domestic soybean yields and trimmed its forecast for U.S. and global year end stocks.

November soybeans closed just above the psychologically important $10 a bushel mark today.

Also, the weekly U.S. exports sales of corn and soybeans were above expectations. However, wheat export sales were less than expected.

The rising soy market and strong weekly exports helped to lift corn futures today.

Wheat also rallied on short covering, even with the disappointing exports and the USDA report that raised world wheat production for 2017-18.

Soy oil rose more than meal today, helping to make up for it lagging behind on Thursday.

Rain continues this weekend in the U.S. Midwest, further delaying the harvest that is already running behind the normal pace.

However, next week drier weather returns.

PRAIRIE WEATHER

In Western Canada, the central and northern Prairies are expected to have a mostly dry weekend, which should allow harvest progress.

Today’s Alberta crop report said south and central regions have almost completed harvest but the northwest region is struggling with only abou t 41 percent in the bin. The northeast is 64 percent complete and the Peace is 72 percent done.

As a whole, Alberta’s canola harvest is 67 percent complete, the report said.

CANOLA CRUSH

Crushers were operating at a near record pace in the most recent week. The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said members crushed 204,820 tonnes in the week to Oct. 11, up about four percent from the week before and only about 3,500 tonnes shy of the record.

That represented 92.4 percent of capacity.

The crush to date is 1.69 tonnes, a little bit behind last year’s pace of 1.74 million tonnes.

EXPORTS

Weekly canola exports rose to 368,800 tonnes, up from 338,400 the week before, according to the Canadian Grain Commission.

For the year to date, canola exports stand at 1.766 million, almost 22 percent ahead of last year at the same time.

After a strong performance to date, wheat exports slowed to 197,900 tonnes, down from 301,400 tonnes the week before.

Still the total so far is 2.906 tonnes, up 13 percent over last year.

Vancouver cleared 14 ships last week, up from 12 the week before. There were 15 ships in the line up, down one from the week before. Thirteen ships were incoming, the same as the week before.

Prince Rupert cleared two ships, same as the week before. Six ships were in the line up, up two from the week before. Two ships were incoming, down from four.

Exports for the year for durum, oats and barley are up from last year, helping to make up for a slower pace of pea and lentil exports.

India had a record pulse crop last year and large imported stocks. Much of those pulses are still available so India’s pulse imports are well down so far this crop year.

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 85 cents at US$51.45 per barrel. China’s oil imports running higher than expected and U.S President Donal Trump’s decision to decertify the Iran nuclear deal helped lift oil

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US80.12 cents, down from 80.16 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2482.

U.S. monthly inflation surged on higher gasoline prices brought on the refinery disruptions from hurricanes. But underlying inflation, one energy and food are stripped out, was less than expected.

The Toronto Stock Exchange composte rose 64.97 points or 0.41 percent to 15,807.17

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 44.28 points, or 0.19 percent, to 22,885.29, the S&P 500 gained 4.63 points, or 0.18 percent, to 2,555.56 and the Nasdaq Composite added 19.10 points, or 0.29 percent, to 6,610.61.

For the week, the TSX was up 0.5 percent. its fifth weekly gain. The Dow was up 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 was up 0.2 percent and the Nasdaq rose 0.2 percent.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 17   499.00s   +3.30   +0.67%

Canola Jan 18   505.90s   +3.40   +0.68%

Canola Mar 18   510.90s   +3.50   +0.69%

Canola May 18   513.70s   +3.90   +0.77%

Canola Jul 18   514.90s   +4.10   +0.80%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 17   229.00s   +1.00   +0.44%

Milling Wheat Dec 17   231.00s   unch   unch

Milling Wheat Mar 18   237.00s   +1.00   +0.42%

 

Durum Wheat Oct 17   280.00s   +1.00   +0.36%

Durum Wheat Dec 17   281.00s   unch   unch

Durum Wheat Mar 18   286.00s   unch   unch

 

Barley Oct 17   145.00s   unch   unch

Barley Dec 17   148.00s   unch   unch

Barley Mar 18   151.00s   unch   unch

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 17   1000-2s   +8-2   +0.83%

Soybeans Jan 18   1010-2s   +7-6   +0.77%

Soybeans Mar 18   1019-2s   +7-2   +0.72%

Soybeans May 18   1028-0s   +6-6   +0.66%

Soybeans Jul 18   1035-6s   +6-2   +0.61%

 

Soybean Meal Oct 17   324.5s   +1.8   +0.56%

Soybean Meal Dec 17   328.6s   +2.3   +0.70%

Soybean Meal Jan 18   330.7s   +2.4   +0.73%

 

Soybean Oil Oct 17   33.49s   +0.42   +1.27%

Soybean Oil Dec 17   33.69s   +0.41   +1.23%

Soybean Oil Jan 18   33.85s   +0.40   +1.20%

 

Corn Dec 17   352-6s   +3-6   +1.07%

Corn Mar 18   366-4s   +3-6   +1.03%

Corn May 18   375-2s   +3-4   +0.94%

Corn Jul 18   382-4s   +3-2   +0.86%

Corn Sep 18   389-2s   +3-2   +0.84%

 

Oats Dec 17   266-6s   +5-0   +1.91%

Oats Mar 18   267-2s   +3-4   +1.33%

Oats May 18   269-0s   +4-2   +1.61%

Oats Jul 18   265-6s   +4-6   +1.82%

Oats Sep 18   265-6s   +4-6   +1.82%

 

Wheat Dec 17   439-4s   +9-0   +2.09%

Wheat Mar 18   458-0s   +8-4   +1.89%

Wheat May 18   470-4s   +8-6   +1.89%

Wheat Jul 18   484-2s   +9-0   +1.89%

Wheat Sep 18   500-2s   +9-0   +1.83%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 17   615-0s   +3-6   +0.61%

Spring Wheat Mar 18   629-0s   +4-0   +0.64%

Spring Wheat May 18   635-4s   +4-0   +0.63%

Spring Wheat Jul 18   640-0s   +4-4   +0.71%

Spring Wheat Sep 18   633-2s   +4-0   +0.64%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 17   436-2s   +10-0   +2.35%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 18   454-4s   +10-0   +2.25%

Hard Red Wheat May 18   468-2s   +9-4   +2.07%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18   486-0s   +9-2   +1.94%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 18   504-6s   +9-2   +1.87%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Oct 17   112.825s   +0.475   +0.42%

Live Cattle Dec 17   117.125s   -0.150   -0.13%

Live Cattle Feb 18   121.075s   -0.125   -0.10%

 

Feeder Cattle Oct 17   154.050s   +0.500   +0.33%

Feeder Cattle Nov 17   155.000s   +0.450   +0.29%

Feeder Cattle Jan 18   153.050s   +0.800   +0.53%

 

Lean Hogs Oct 17   60.400s   -0.300   -0.49%

Lean Hogs Dec 17   62.200s   +0.575   +0.93%

Lean Hogs Feb 18   67.450s   +0.625   +0.94%

 

 

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