Canola futures spent most of Monday lower, but rallied near the close to eek out a tiny gain.
Canola got support from short covering and a weaker loonie.
Canola supplies are thought to be tighter than soybean supply and that should support the Canadian crop’s value, but it might be more of a case of limiting the fall, rather than sparking a rally.
“(Canola) has to gain ground, but it can do that by being sturdier on the slide down,” said Ken Ball, a broker with P.I. Financial.
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“Canola has to get somewhat more expensive versus soybean products, but it only has to do it in a relative sense.
“It might just stop sliding while the soybean markets go down,” said Ball.
Canola has slid to a zone of support around the $480 per tonne mark, down from the March high of a little more than $530, a decline of about $50 in value.
Because of the tight supply, canola will have to become relatively expensive compared to other oilseeds, but that that could mean falling less sharply that the competition, Ball said.
“We are going to have to ration out canola supplies,” said Ball.
“We’ve got to discourage some demand.”
While canola’s futures price has fallen, the basis has narrowed, reducing the effect on the cash price.
Corn and wheat futures were stronger Monday. The continuing healthy U.S. export pace is providing strength to prices.
U.S. Department of Agriculture today began reporting on the condition of the winter wheat crop nationally, bringing fresh weekly fodder for the trade to use. Previously individual states had reports but this is the first for the nation this year.
The USDA said the U.S. winter wheat crop is not as good as it was last year. It is rated 51 percent good to excellent, down from 59 percent a year ago, and 58 percent in the last national report back in November.
However, the rain in Kansas improved the weekly condition of the hard red winter wheat crop.
The Kansas good-to-excellent rating now is 43 percent (38 percent last week) fair is steady at 37 percent and the poor to very poor rating is 20 percent (25 percent last week)
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 36 cents to US$50.24 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US74.74 cents, down from 75.13 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3379.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended up 36.65 points, or 0.24 percent, at 15,584.40.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 11.38 points, or 0.06 percent, to 20,651.84, the S&P 500 lost 3.8 points, or 0.16 percent, to 2,358.92 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 17.06 points, or 0.29 percent, to 5,894.68.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola May 2017 484.50 +0.10 +0.02%
Canola Jul 2017 488.90 +0.40 +0.08%
Canola Nov 2017 476.70 +0.30 +0.06%
Canola Jan 2018 480.10 -0.10 -0.02%
Canola Mar 2018 483.50 -0.10 -0.02%
Milling Wheat May 2017 228.00 -2.00 -0.87%
Milling Wheat Jul 2017 229.00 -2.00 -0.87%
Milling Wheat Oct 2017 224.00 -1.00 -0.44%
Durum Wheat May 2017 272.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2017 271.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2017 262.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2017 137.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2017 138.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans May 2017 938.25 -6.50 -0.69%
Soybeans Jul 2017 949.25 -6.00 -0.63%
Soybeans Aug 2017 952.00 -6.25 -0.65%
Soybeans Sep 2017 950.50 -4.50 -0.47%
Soybeans Nov 2017 950.25 -2.25 -0.24%
Soybeans Jan 2018 956.25 -2.25 -0.23%
Soybean Meal May 2017 307.60 -0.50 -0.16%
Soybean Meal Jul 2017 311.00 -0.30 -0.10%
Soybean Meal Aug 2017 311.60 -0.30 -0.10%
Soybean Oil May 2017 31.42 -0.38 -1.19%
Soybean Oil Jul 2017 31.71 -0.38 -1.18%
Soybean Oil Aug 2017 31.81 -0.40 -1.24%
Corn May 2017 367.75 +3.00 +0.82%
Corn Jul 2017 375.25 +3.00 +0.81%
Corn Sep 2017 382.75 +3.00 +0.79%
Corn Dec 2017 392.00 +3.25 +0.84%
Corn Mar 2018 401.25 +4.00 +1.01%
Oats May 2017 225.50 +2.25 +1.01%
Oats Jul 2017 222.50 +2.75 +1.25%
Oats Sep 2017 220.00 +0.50 +0.23%
Oats Dec 2017 220.75 -0.50 -0.23%
Oats Mar 2018 227.50 +1.00 +0.44%
Wheat May 2017 427.75 +0.75 +0.18%
Wheat Jul 2017 440.25 +1.00 +0.23%
Wheat Sep 2017 454.50 +0.75 +0.17%
Wheat Dec 2017 474.50 +0.75 +0.16%
Wheat Mar 2018 489.25 +1.75 +0.36%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 2017 531.00 -3.50 -0.65%
Spring Wheat Jul 2017 538.50 -3.00 -0.55%
Spring Wheat Sep 2017 546.50 -3.00 -0.55%
Spring Wheat Dec 2017 556.25 -2.25 -0.40%
Spring Wheat Mar 2018 566.00 -9.75 -1.69%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat May 2017 419.00 -2.25 -0.53%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 432.25 -2.25 -0.52%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 448.25 -1.75 -0.39%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 471.75 -2.00 -0.42%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018 488.25 -1.25 -0.26%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017 119.42 -0.50 -0.42%
Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017 110.70 -0.17 -0.15%
Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017 106.80 +0.02 +0.02%
Feeder Cattle (P) Apr 2017 133.08 -0.67 -0.50%
Feeder Cattle (P) May 2017 131.80 -0.60 -0.45%
Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2017 133.35 -0.10 -0.07%
Lean Hogs (P) Apr 2017 64.80 -0.75 -1.14%
Lean Hogs (P) May 2017 69.40 -0.45 -0.64%
Lean Hogs (P) Jun 2017 72.65 -1.27 -1.72%
