Canola futures up on commercial demand, short covering

A late session round of commercial and technical buying pushed canola futures up about one percent Thursday.

The commercial interest could have come from processors, which are enjoying strong crush margins and have capacity to increase the amount of seed they crush.

Soybeans and soy oil were little changed. The beans hit a three and a half week high during the session but that triggered profit taking and the market closed down a few pennies.

Price-positive factors in the oilseed market include the stronger than expected U.S. soybean crush data for December, hot dry weather in Argentina that is stressing crops and news today from the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, which trimmed its estimate of Argentina’s soybean seeded area to 20.35 million hectares, from 20.45 million. Almost all the crop is now planted.

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Oat futures were up today and have rallied significantly since the start of the new year, reflecting a lack of product available to U.S. millers because of the transportation problems getter railcars from Canada down to the U.S. Midwest. Today May oats rallied about 2.5 percent.

Unfortunately the transportation issue also means the higher futures price is not showing up in the Prairie cash price.

Corn closed up a couple of cents. Support came from weekly U.S. export sales that were more than expected. But on the negative side, China in the week cancelled 169,800 tonnes of U.S. corn because of the unapproved GMO content issue.

Larry Weber of Weber Commodities at CropSphere in Saskatoon this week warned that pea and lentil exports from Canada are lagging behind the pace needed to match the forecast ending stocks level. If movement does not pick up, it would force an increase in the ending stocks outlook and pressure 2014-15 crop prices. Producers might want to consider current new crop bids because of the downside risk created by the transportation backlog. The full story will be in the Jan. 23 issue of The Western Producer.

Turn to Producer.com today to see video highlights from last week’s St. Jean Farm Days, including CWB’s Bruce Burnett and Manitoba credit unions adviser Brad Magnusson who said farmers can’t count on high prices coming back any time soon and that they need to hedge carefully and watch their costs.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2014 428.90 +4.30 +1.01%

Canola May 2014 438.10 +4.10 +0.94%

Canola Jul 2014 446.90 +4.20 +0.95%

Canola Nov 2014 460.30 +3.70 +0.81%

Canola Jan 2015 465.90 +3.00 +0.65%

Milling Wheat Mar 2014 184.00 +4.00 +2.22%

Milling Wheat May 2014 188.00 +2.00 +1.08%

Milling Wheat Jul 2014 190.00 +2.00 +1.06%

Durum Wheat Mar 2014 243.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2014 247.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2014 248.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2014 127.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2014 129.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2014 129.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 2014 1315 -3 -0.23%

Soybeans May 2014 1296.25 -1.25 -0.10%

Soybeans Jul 2014 1281.25 unch 0.00%

Soybeans Aug 2014 1241.25 +3 +0.24%

Soybeans Sep 2014 1170.5 +3.5 +0.30%

Soybeans Nov 2014 1122.25 +4.25 +0.38%

Soybean Meal Mar 2014 432 -2.5 -0.58%

Soybean Meal May 2014 418.1 -1 -0.24%

Soybean Meal Jul 2014 410 unch 0.00%

Soybean Oil Mar 2014 38.05 +0.06 +0.16%

Soybean Oil May 2014 38.38 +0.05 +0.13%

Soybean Oil Jul 2014 38.75 +0.04 +0.10%

Corn Mar 2014 428 +2.25 +0.53%

Corn May 2014 435.5 +2 +0.46%

Corn Jul 2014 441.75 +1.25 +0.28%

Corn Sep 2014 446.5 +1 +0.22%

Corn Dec 2014 452.25 +1 +0.22%

Oats Mar 2014 399.75 +6.75 +1.72%

Oats May 2014 354 +8.5 +2.46%

Oats Jul 2014 326 +5 +1.56%

Oats Sep 2014 311.5 +4.75 +1.55%

Oats Dec 2014 299.75 +2.25 +0.76%

Wheat Mar 2014 572.75 +5 +0.88%

Wheat May 2014 579.75 +5 +0.87%

Wheat Jul 2014 586.5 +5.25 +0.90%

Wheat Sep 2014 595.25 +4.75 +0.80%

Wheat Dec 2014 607.75 +4.5 +0.75%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2014 624 +10 +1.63%

Spring Wheat May 2014 622 +6 +0.97%

Spring Wheat Jul 2014 629.25 +6 +0.96%

Spring Wheat Sep 2014 636.5 +5.5 +0.87%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014 649.25 +5.75 +0.89%

Kansas City

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 629.5 +9 +1.45%

KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 625.75 +8.25 +1.34%

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 622.5 +7 +1.14%

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 634 +7 +1.12%

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2014 647.75 +7 +1.09%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 21 cents at $93.96 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 91.52 cents US, up from 91.47 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0926 Cdn.

Upbeat economic data from the United States, Europe and Japan lifted the TSX but the Dow and S&P 500 were down a little on weak quarterly reports from major banks JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup. Quarterly reports filed so far this quarter are showing mixed results.

In early unofficial tallies —

The TSX composite closed up 59 points or 0.43 percent at 13,831.58.

The Dow fell 64.93 points or 0.39 percent to 16,417.01

The S&P 500 fell 0.13 percent to 1,845.89

The Nasdaq rose 3.81 points or 0.09 percent to 4,218.69.