Canola fell again Monday, but whether that signalled continuing pressure in North American oilseeds or was simply an echo from Friday was impossible to tell.
With Memorial Day closing markets south of the line, canola traded on its own.
“Volumes are extremely low as you’d expect on a day when the U.S. markets are closed,” said Jon Driedger, analyst with FarmLink Marketing.
“It’s a little bit of follow-through selling that pushed through support which triggered a bit of additional pressure. With light volume it’s easy to exaggerate it.”
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November canola futures at $486.90 per tonne are back to a line of support that has generally held since November 2016, except for the March-April slump that took them down to $470.
The situation of the Western Canadian canola crop is still a mixed bag. Hundreds of thousands of acres are still facing delayed seeding due to wetness, but conditions in most areas haven’t worsened and there is a growing feeling that little acreage will be lost.
Driedger said many traders will be watching the Tuesday market open to see if Friday’s selloff is continued, stops, or reverses.
“Who knows? Coming out of a holiday weekend it’s always hard to tell,” said Driedger.
Strategie Grains’ monthly European canola crop outlook is virtually unchanged, with slightly lower expectations for Germany offset by slightly higher expectations for other parts of the bloc. It expects 21.35 million tonnes in 2017-18, which would be five percent more than in 2016-17
Rainfall in European canola areas has been good except for parts of northwestern Germany, which are dry.
Port prices for Russian wheat have increased as May rains have created some worries about the quality of the crop, Reuters reported. Other crops have also seen worries rise as coldness and wetness have increased the change of disease.
“The development of sowings is lagging behind schedule,” said analytical firm SovEcon.
“The cold weather of the past weeks has negatively affected the potential yields of sugar beet, soybeans and barley. The risks of disease developing are rising.”
Russian spring seeding is being affected by delays and cold soils. Spring wheat and barley are being affected, with barley seeding at its most delayed since 2010.
Russia and Turkey are involved in small, simmering dispute over purchases of Russian wheat. Phone calls are being made and statements issued.
The New York market for crude oil was closed, but Brent crude edged higher in quiet trade.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US74.32 cents, little changed from 74.33 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.346.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 4.98 points, or 0.03 percent, at 15,421.91.
U.S. markets were closed for Memorial Day.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 17 512.20 -4.60 -0.89%
Canola Jan 18 492.30 -3.00 -0.61%
Canola Mar 18 496.80 -2.80 -0.56%
Canola May 18 499.70 -2.80 -0.56%
Milling Wheat Jul 17 245.00 unch unch
Milling Wheat Oct 17 242.00 unch unch
Milling Wheat Dec 17 245.00 +1.00 +0.41%
Durum Wheat Jul 17 279.00 unch unch
Durum Wheat Oct 17 267.00 unch unch
Durum Wheat Dec 17 267.00 unch unch
Barley Jul 17 138.00 unch unch
Barley Oct 17 140.00 unch unch
Barley Dec 17 140.00 unch unch
