Well, everyone in the equity markets seems happy happy again. And I’m happy. I’m on holiday, it’s sunny and dry, there aren’t too many mosquitoes and my garden is finally growing. The S and P has roared back up to the territory it was in last November – after that big crash – and some folks, like Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Chase are making potfuls of cash again. So I guess, according to the bulls, all our recent problems are behind us.
I dunno. Seems to me like the cheerleaders of the present bull run are some of the same guys who were throwing in the towel in March, when the markets were hitting their trough. Seem like herd animals. But that’s what powers markets, bull and bear: when everyone runs in the same direction, even when that doesn’t necessarily make much sense. And they can run on and on. Like those bulls in Pamplona. Where exactly do they think they’re running anyway? I don’t think those bulls think too hard about it and I don’t think these present equity market bulls are thinking too hard about it right now either.
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The bulls seem to have taken all those green shoots and fermented some cheap homebrew. Who knows? Maybe they’ll be right. The insolvency of California and the near-bankruptcy of CIT may be some of the lingering effects of a passing downturn, rather than the harbingers of continuing decline. That’s the prevailing attitude right now, which explains this happy, frothy rally.
Today Ben Bernanke lays out his views of the state of the U.S. economy. Everyone’s watching keenly to see what he says. He won’t likely be as cheery as many of the bulls, but if he offers the bulls some backing for their optimism, even in an extremely qualified way, they’ll probably be happy. It’d take a lot to knock this present efferverscence.