GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS
OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE
ICE canola futures are trending $2 to $4/tonne higher so far this morning, supported by rising CBOT soyoil futures and modest energy market strength. But Chicago soybean futures are mixed…fractionally higher to almost 2 cents/bu lower…nearby contracts slightly lower with slippage in soymeal futures.
CBOT corn futures are narrowly mixed this morning…a penny or less either side of unchanged. Corn s solid price gains on Wednesday, if followed by decent gains today, might begin to suggest that market has put in a near-term bottom.
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Prairie Weather
A clipper system is moving across the Prairies this morning and is bringing a mix of rain and snow to…
US wheat markets are posting solid gains…Minnie spring wheat futures are rallying 6 to 11 cents higher, HRW up 10 to 14 cents and SRW wheat rising 3 to 6 cents. Wheat futures are being led higher by HRW amid heightened concerns about dry weather key US growing regions. (See item below.)
Latest on the war in the Middle East
Pakistan has stepped up efforts to entice the US and Iran to prolong a ceasefire that s set to end next week, allowing more time for the warring sides to negotiate a lasting peace deal. Both countries are considering a two-week ceasefire extension, Bloomberg reported. Neither side desires a restart to fighting, with the war having devastated Iran s infrastructure and sent energy prices soaring globally.
Still, there are many contentious issues for the countries to resolve, including the reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Iran s nuclear and missile programs and sanctions relief for the Islamic Republic. For now, Washington and Tehran are saying they haven t agreed to any ceasefire that lasts beyond late Tuesday, said the Bloomberg report.
Be aware…the Financial Times on Wednesday reported that Iran secretly acquired a Chinese spy satellite that provided a capability to target US military bases across the Middle East. Bloomberg noted that China s President Xi on Tuesday broke a nearly seven-week silence on the Iran war, saying the world order is crumbling into disarray, while pledging to play a constructive role in the Middle East, while the nation s foreign ministry called the naval blockade dangerous and irresponsible.
In Other News
– US Plains drought intensifying… World Weather Inc. late Wednesday issued a special report saying drought is intensifying across the US central and southern Plains. A significant amount of the hard red winter wheat is rated poor or very poor and there is a pressing need for rain. USDA already rates crop conditions in Kansas (key HRW state) at only 32% good to excellent condition.
The High Plains region will remain mostly dry through the middle of next week, with temperatures often running above or well above normal for this time of year. Eastern sections of Oklahoma and Kansas will see periods of rain and thunderstorms that will alleviate some of the dryness, though not enough to completely fix the drought. Wheat conditions will likely deteriorate and the need for abundant rain will remain high heading into early May.
– March US soy crush strong but below expectations… The US soybean crush in March reached the second-highest level for any month on record and the loftiest ever for the third month of the year, but fell short of most analyst estimates, according to monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data issued on Wednesday. NOPA members, which account for nearly all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 226.161 million bu of soybeans last month, up 8.3% from the 208.785 million bu processed in February and up 16.3% from the 194.551 million bu crushed in March 2025. The March 2026 total reflected a daily crush rate of 7.296 million bu/day, the third-strongest daily pace on record, after the average daily crush pace reached an all-time high in February, according to NOPA data.
US crush capacity has grown to record levels as strong demand for soyoil to make biofuel prompted processors to build new plants and expand existing ones in recent years. US soyoil stocks as of March 31 declined to 2.039 billion pounds, down 2.0% from 2.080 billion pounds at the end of February, but up 36.1% from the 1.498 billion pounds in stocks a year earlier. The total was below all trade estimates which averaged 2.173 billion pounds.
– UN pushing for safe fertilizer passage through Strait of Hormuz… The United Nations is ready to set up a corridor to allow fertilizer to move freely through the Strait of Hormuz and reach farmers for the planting season, but doing so hinges on a political agreement to go forward, Bloomberg reported. The UN is ready…we have the teams identified, we have the system prepared, we have the technical design of the mechanism. We just need a political and diplomatic solution that allows us to start, UN Undersecretary General Jorge Moreira da Silva, who is overseeing the initiative, said in an interview.
Talks with UN member states are underway in a bid to reach an international agreement, da Silva said. He didn t share who was involved, but said he s having extensive conversations with countries in the region, not only those that are more direct affected and involved in the conflict, but also globally.
– Baltic Dry Index rises to four-month high… A key gauge of bulk ocean shipping rates climbed to the highest since early December, driven by a surge in demand and tightening vessel supply. The Baltic Dry Index rose 5.5% to 2,484 points on Wednesday in London, extending its rally for a ninth straight session. The index tracks freight rates across Capesize, Panamax and Supermax vessels hauling raw materials including iron ore, coal and grains. Demand was concentrated in Capesize ships, the segment most exposed to iron ore.
– Manitoba Pork highlights trade uncertainty and industry shifts… Manitoba Pork s annual general meeting last week drew together producers, political leaders, and industry stakeholders for an important opportunity to discuss trade, market access, and the future of agriculture. Trade remains the number one issue for Manitoba pork producers given roughly 90% of pigs raised in Manitoba are exported, either live to the United States or as pork products shipped globally. Rising protectionism, tariffs in China, non-tariff barriers in Europe, US country-of-origin labelling, California s Proposition 12, and the upcoming CUSMA review are all adding uncertainty to the marketplace. That uncertainty complicates financial and investment decisions for producers.
A presentation at the AGM from futurist Todd Thurman highlighted longer-term changes facing agriculture. With global population growth slowing, future food demand may not expand at the same pace seen over the last 50 years. As a result, Canada must focus on quality, reliability, and reputation rather than simply moving volume at the lowest price.
– Algeria buys durum wheat... Algeria s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased durum wheat in an international tender on Wednesday. The tonnage bought was unclear, although some traders estimated 400,000 tonnes were purchased. The tender sought a nominal 50,000 tonnes, but Algeria generally buys more than the nominal volume requested. Initial estimates of the purchase price came in at US $327/tonne cost and freight (c&f) for larger panamax shipments. For smaller handymax shipments, prices between $332.50 and $334/tonne c&f. Shipment was sought in three periods between May 16-31, June 1-15 and June 16-30.
Algeria does not disclose the results of its tenders and results reported are based on trader assessments. More detailed estimates of prices and volume are possible later. In its last reported durum tender on December 24, the OAIC was believed to have purchased around 500,000 tonnes at around $315/tonne c&f.
Outside Markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average tipped 72.27 points lower on Wednesday to settle at 48,463.72, but the S&P 500 ended 55.57 points higher at 7,022.95. Canada s S&P/TSX composite stock index rose 53 points to 34,156. Early Thursday, the June Dow Jones Futures are up 126 points.
Global stock markets are on the rise this morning as optimism grew about a deal to end the Iran war, while traders digested a buffet of economic data and critical earnings reports. Wall Street futures are in positive territory after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed to fresh record high closes yesterday as a wave of solid earnings allayed concerns about the economy.
Hopes are high that a US-Iran deal may be struck over the coming days, analysts from DBS in Singapore wrote in a research note. The Middle East conflict is no longer treated as a stress point by market participants, and we wonder if a US-Iran deal or ceasefire extension is already in the price. But uncertainty over peace prospects remains high.
Meanwhile, The International Monetary Fund warned the US on Wednesday that Treasuries are losing their “premium” status as global concerns mount over America s debt management. The US has been selling large volumes of debt because its budget deficit has averaged roughly 6% of gross domestic product over the past three years…a historically large shortfall outside of wartime or recession eras, a Bloomberg report noted, with the gap expected to stay around those levels throughout the coming decade.
The June US Dollar Index is up 0.144 at 97.995. The Canadian dollar steadied against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.92.
May crude oil futures are up $0.80 at US $92.09/barrel. Oil prices are edging higher on Thursday, reversing earlier declines, as the market questioned whether peace talks between the US and Iran would achieve a deal to end the war that has caused unprecedented disruption of Middle Eastern energy supplies.
While there are hopes for de-escalation, many investors remain skeptical, given that US-Iran talks have repeatedly broken down even after appearing to make progress, said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities.
Grain Markets
Chicago soybean futures are mixed this morning…trading fractionally higher to almost 2 cents/bu lower…nearby contracts are weakest. Bean futures were in rally mode on Wednesday, with contracts 9 to 11 cents higher at the close. Soymeal futures are down around $2/ton this morning after gaining $1 to $4/ton yesterday. Soyoil futures are showing gains of 50 to 76 points this morning after ending Wednesday steady to 116 points higher.
NOPA data from Wednesday morning showed March US soybean crush among members at 226.16 million bu, a record for the month but just shy of trade expectations. That was up 8.32% from February and 16.25% above the March 2025. US soyoil stocks were down 1.97% from the end of Feb at 2.04 billion lbs, which was still 36.11% above the same month last year.
USDA this morning reported weekly US soybean export sales of 247,900 tonnes for the week ended April 9…a marketing year low. That was down 16% from the previous week and 39% from the prior 4-week average. The trade was looking for a number between 200,000 and 700,000 tonnes.
It seems soybean traders have some renewed optimism about high-level US/China trade talks expected to happen in mid-May following a social media post by President Trump. The face-to-face meeting between Trump and President Xi was originally expected to occur either late last month or early this month, but was delayed by the military action in Iran and the Middle East. Iran is a key trading partner for China, and Beijing continues to largely rely on Brazil for its soybean needs…shunning the US when possible.
Chicago corn futures are narrowly mixed this morning, but leaning slightly weaker…down fractionally to a penny on the front month contracts. The corn market posted 4 to 8 cent gains across most contracts on Wednesday.
Some premium may have been put in the market as rain is expected over the next week in the central and eastern US Corn Belt following recent precip…though it s early to be talking major planting delays.
EIA data showed US ethanol production averaging 1.12 million barrels per day for the week ended April 10, a 4,000 bpd increase from the week prior. Stocks saw a build of 646,000 million barrels to 26.699 million barrels.
USDA this morning reported US corn export sales of 1.400 MMT for the week ended April 9…up 3% from the previous week and 14% from the prior 4-week average. The trade was looking for a number between 0.8-1.8 MMT.
Traders are keeping a close watch on any acreage shifts in the US due to fertilizer supply issues. Globally, all eyes are on Brazil’s dry corn crop with little rain in the forecast.
US wheat markets are posting solid gains this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures up 6 to 11 cents, HRW 10 to 14 cents higher and SRW wheat gaining 3 to 6 cents. The US wheat complex posted marginal gains on Wednesday with contracts higher across the three exchanges…spring wheat finishing 1 to 2 cents higher.
USDA this morning reported US wheat export sales of 100,300 tonnes for the week ended April 9…down 39% from the previous week and 48% from the prior 4-week average. The trade was looking for a number between 75,000 to 250,000 tonnes.
Near-term weather in most of the US Plains looks dry, but there could be some relief next week. However, there s still been at least some damage done to the US hard red winter crop and there s been notable chatter about a significant year-over-year increase in acreage abandonment. In contrast, US soft red winter conditions are generally good.
The large available global wheat supply limited the upside Wednesday, but global demand has been a little bit better than expected.
CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET
ICE canola futures closed a bit higher on Wednesday, though strength in the Canadian dollar limited spillover support from a higher Chicago soy complex.
Crude oil futures remained volatile, with US WTI futures trading around $90/barrel as the market watched developments in the Middle East war, including the potential for more peace talks between the US and Iran.
May canola futures finished $1.80 higher yesterday at $705.90/tonne, while November gained $1.90 to $718.90.
For today… canola futures are pushing $2 to $4/tonne higher this morning…pulling strength from rising CBOT soyoil and world energy markets. May canola futures are up $2.20 right now at $708.10/tonne, staying just above support at its 50-day moving average ($706)…but can t yet generate sustained upward price inertia from current levels.
The Middle East war is not the only thing affecting canola futures, with canola exports continuing to lurk in the background. Spec funds still maintain substantial length in canola futures…with attention now shifting from the May to the July contract as the lead.
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