GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS
OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE
Grain futures prices are modestly firmer to start the morning trade. ICE canola futures are posting gains of around $1/tonne this morning, though eroding from the overnight highs. Chicago soybean futures are 1 to 4 cents/bu higher. Bean trading remains choppy and sideways, but soymeal has been the standout performer the past few sessions and hitting near a five-month high now. Spreaders are featured unwinding long bean oil/short meal spreads.
CBOT corn futures are up 1 to 3 cents. US wheat markets are also higher…spring wheat futures are up a penny, HRW rising 3 to 5 cents and SRW wheat gaining a penny. Wheat is being supported by continued dry conditions for western portions of the US HRW crop region and increased fertilizer supply concerns. But technicals still favor the corn and wheat futures bears, with prices trending down of late on daily bar charts.
Read Also
AM Market Report – April 15, 2026
GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE Ice canola futures are posting $3/tonne gains to start so…
In Other News
– The US and Iran begin a battle of economic endurance in the Strait of Hormuz… The US military began a blockade of Iran’s ports, angering Tehran and adding uncertainty around the crucial waterway, although hopes for dialogue to end the war provided some relief to oil markets where benchmark prices have fallen back just below $100/barrel. After a breakdown of weekend talks in Islamabad between the two adversaries, a US official said there was continued engagement and forward motion on trying to get to an agreement. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also said efforts were still under way to resolve the conflict.
But such comments conflict with an Iranian response threatening all ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. “Security in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is either for everyone or for NO ONE,” the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported Monday. “NO PORT in the region will be safe,” according to a statement from the Iranian military and the Revolutionary Guards.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump warned that China would face big problems if it proceeds with reported plans to ship air defense systems to Iran, with US intelligence suggesting the equipment could be routed covertly through third-party nations in the coming weeks. While the shipments are not yet confirmed and China has denied involvement, the warning highlights a sharp escalation in tensions following failed US Iran talks, raising the risk of broader geopolitical confrontation and potential economic retaliation if military support materializes.
– China s Xi weighs in on US-Iran war… Chinese President Xi Jinping lamented a world in disarray, using some of his strongest language yet to describe a collapse of the Western-led international order as he vowed to play a constructive role in the Middle East. The international order is crumbling into disarray, Xi told Spanish Prime Minister Pedro S nchez on Tuesday in Beijing, using a Chinese phrase indicating not only chaos but also moral decay, reported Bloomberg. Xi said China would continue to play a constructive role in the Middle East by promoting peace and dialogue. Xi Jinping underscored China s principled stance of promoting peace and dialogue, and reiterated that China would continue to play a constructive role in this regard, China s state television cited Xi as saying to Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohammed during a meeting Tuesday morning in Beijing.
The Bloomberg report made no mention any Xi response to President Trump threatening new tariffs on China if it supplies heavy arms to Iran.
– OPEC output plunge… War took a toll on crude oil production by major Gulf Arab exporters in March, according to data released by OPEC on Monday. CNBC noted that Iraq took the biggest hit with production collapsing 61% from 4.2 million barrels per day in February to 1.6 million bpd in March, according to the organization s monthly report. Output dropped 53% in Kuwait and 44% in the United Arab Emirates month over month, the data showed. Production in Saudi Arabia, OPEC s biggest producer, dropped 23% from 10.1 million bpd to 7.8 million bpd.
The report noted that the Saudis have relied on a crucial East-West pipeline to reroute barrels from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea for export. The pipeline, however, recently saw a drone attack by Iran, which cut its capacity by 700,000 barrels a day, according to the state-owned Saudi Press Agency. That left OPEC output down 27% month over month from 28.7 million bpd to 20.8 million bpd.
When energy assets restart in the Middle East it will require many weeks to bring back thousands of wells and up to two months for the return of vessels to deliver the crude and transport to offtakers. Degree of damage to Middle East refining assets still unknown as governments and countries keep the information restricted.
– Prairie dryness easing… With the start of widespread spring seeding just around the corner, Prairie moisture conditions are continuing to improve. The latest monthly update of the Canadian Drought Monitor shows just 21% of Prairie agricultural lands impacted by abnormal dryness or some form of drought as of the end of March. That s down sharply from 47% at the end of February and continues a downtrend from last fall, when farmland impacted by dryness or drought hit 71% in November.
Most of the Prairies experienced near to above-normal precipitation in March, with much of region receiving between 85% and 150% of normal, with some localized areas exceeding 200% of normal due to multiple winter storms, the monitor said. However, other areas were not as lucky, including southern Alberta, which saw only about 60% of normal.
In Alberta, conditions generally improved, especially across central parts of the province where abnormal dryness and moderate drought receded after widespread precipitation that in some places exceeded 200% of normal. The Peace River region also saw notable recovery, with pockets of moderate and severe drought disappearing. But the picture was less favourable in the south, where abnormal dryness and moderate drought eased in some areas while severe drought expanded along the southwestern border as precipitation remained below normal and temperatures stayed warmer than average. Northern Alberta posted only minor gains, with small reductions in abnormal dryness and moderate drought.
Saskatchewan saw a more mixed pattern, with both improvements and localized deterioration. Southwestern Saskatchewan experienced reductions in abnormal dryness and moderate drought, while west-central and east-central areas also improved enough to erase some previously entrenched dryness. However, new areas of severe drought developed along the southern border where precipitation deficits persisted. Moderate drought also lingered from La Ronge toward the Manitoba border, reflecting longer-term moisture shortages, while northwestern Saskatchewan saw a slight expansion of abnormal dryness after another month of below-normal precipitation.
Manitoba posted some of the strongest overall improvement in Prairie moisture conditions. In the south, abnormal dryness and moderate drought were removed altogether after precipitation reached between 85% and 200% of normal, improving soil moisture ahead of seeding. Central Manitoba also improved, with reductions in abnormal dryness and moderate drought and the removal of a severe drought pocket in central and east-central districts. Northern Manitoba likewise saw drought ease, including the disappearance of moderate drought in north-central areas and a pullback in severe drought, although some dryness persisted along the northern edge of central Manitoba where precipitation remained limited.
– Russian wheat export prices down… Russian wheat export prices fell last week amid a drop in global exchange prices, strengthening of the rouble and a slight weakening of demand from importers. Also noted…poor weather conditions at ports during the first 10 days of April had limited shipments.
Interest from Black Sea importers softened, with buyers in Egypt and Turkey pointing to the approaching local crop”, said SovEcon. The agency estimated April wheat exports at 3.7 MMT.
– US crop update... US corn planting is moving forward. Parts of the Midwest and Plains did see some rain over the past week, delaying fieldwork, but recharging soil moisture ahead of the growing season. The USDA says 5% of US corn has been planted, compared to the five-year average of 4%, with activity moving into the heart of the Corn Belt.
6% of US soybeans are planted, compared to 2% on average, with the bulk of the progress in the south and southeast.
34% of US winter wheat is rated good to excellent, down 1%, and 32% is poor to very poor, up 1%, reflecting the ongoing drought in parts of the Plains. 11% of winter wheat has headed, compared to 7% most recent years. 6% of US spring wheat is planted, compared to the usual rate of 7%.
– US HRW wheat sees little relief... The parts of US hard red winter wheat country worst-hit by drought didn t get much in the way of relief. Rain in the past week behaved as expected with a restricted amount of dryness relief in the western parts of the production region, said Andrew Owen, meteorologist at World Weather Inc. Much of the west-central and northwestern production areas are advertised to remain dry or mostly dry during the next ten days, while a few showers occur in the Texas Panhandle, he wrote.
The best weather conditions for winter wheat will continue from north-central Texas through central Oklahoma to eastern production areas in Kansas where frequent rain is expected, the forecaster said. Additional opportunities for rain may evolve later this month and in May, and eventually there will be some greater rain in the driest areas, but it may come a little late for the best yields in 2026.
– South American crop updates… Noted crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier on Monday raised his estimate of Brazil s corn crop by 2 MMT to 134 MMT, with a neutral bias. He noted that rainfall last week and over the weekend favored central and southern Brazil. That led to improvements in soil moisture for the southern safrinha corn, but it slowed soybean harvesting in Rio Grande do Sul. Rainfall should increase over much of Brazil this week, which is good news for the safrinha corn, he said. Cordonnier left his estimate of Brazil s soybean crop unchanged at 179 MMT, with a neutral to potentially higher bias depending on results out of Rio Grande do Sul.
USDA in its April supply/demand report last week left its estimate of Brazil s corn and soybean crop unchanged from March at 132 MMT and 180 MMT, respectively.
Argentina s corn crop estimate was left unchanged at 54 MMT, with a neutral to higher bias. The country s soybean crop was also left unchanged, at 48 MMT, with a neutral to higher bias. USDA also left its Argentine corn and soybean estimates unchanged last week at 54 MMT and 48 MMT, respectively. The big outlier is the Rosario Grain Exchange, which last week boosted its estimate from 62 MT to 67 MMT, driven largely by a boost to planted area, Cordonnier noted.
– India forecasts sub-par monsoon… India is likely to see below-average monsoon rains for the first time in three years in 2026, the government said on Monday, stoking concerns over farm output and growth in Asia’s third-largest economy as it battles inflation driven by the Iran war. The monsoon is the lifeblood of India’s nearly $4 trillion economy, delivering almost 70% of the rainfall needed to water farms and replenish aquifers and reservoirs. The monsoon, which typically arrives over the southern state of Kerala around June 1 and retreats by mid-September, is expected to reach 92% of the long-period average (LPA) this year, M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, told a news conference. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) defines normal rainfall as between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season.
“Currently weak La Nina-like conditions are transitioning to neutral conditions. But after June it’s very likely that El Nino will develop,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the IMD. El Nino typically results in hotter and drier weather in Southeast Asia.
Outside Markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to post a gain of 301.68 points on Monday to settle at 48,218.25, while the S&P 500 bumped up 69.35 points to 6,886.24. Canada s S&P/TSX composite stock index gained 183 points yesterday to close at 33,879.
Early Tuesday, the June Dow Jones Futures are up 84 points. Wall Street futures are in positive territory, while awaiting March producer price data and a fresh ?round of corporate earnings. TSX futures followed sentiment higher, as have stock markets in European and Asian overnight.
Global stocks rebounded as investors naively bet on a resolution to the Middle East war even as the US blocked Iran s ports after the collapse of peace talks over the weekend.
Markets are trading hope, not resolution. The failed weekend talks did not produce a deal, but they also did not close the door on diplomacy, and that is enough for equities to keep pushing higher for now, said Charu Chanana, Saxo s chief investment strategist. The problem is that markets may be pricing the chance of de-escalation faster than the proof of it, so I would still expect a choppy, headline-driven tape rather than a clean risk-on trend, she added.
The June US Dollar Index is down 0.343 at 97.820. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.82 US cents.
May crude oil futures are down $3.49 at US $95.59/barrel. Oil prices are falling as signs of possible talks to end the US-Israeli war on Iran eased supply risks stemming from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. While talk about the resumption of US-Iran talks put downward pressure on prices, the move lower ignores the loss of physical barrels of oil that are not moving.
Grain Markets
Chicago soybean futures are trading 1 to 4 cents/bu higher this morning, with the nearby contracts leading the way. Bean futures closed Monday with losses of 5 to 13 cents. May bean futures are up 4 cents at $11.66/bu…seemingly locked in a sideways range currently between about $11.50 to $11.80/bu.
Anticipation/worry is building for US President Trump’s visit to China in May. Concerns of a souring situation with raising tensions between the US and China. Trump has threatened 50% tariffs on China if it transfers weapons to Iran. The market had been banking (hoping) on a big increase in old crop demand from China to boost US bean export numbers, but that window is rapidly closing with South American supplies now flooding the market.
Soymeal futures are up $1 to $4/ton this morning after finishing Monday a dime to $1.60/ton lower. Soyoil futures are 14 to 23 points weaker right now after falling 58 to 75 points yesterday. A potential double top formation remains potentially in the making on bean oil price charts.
US planting weather generally looks favorable. USDA s crop progress reporting from Monday pegged the US soybean crop at 6% planted as of Sunday. That is well above the 2% compared to the same date last year and the 5-year average.
Monday s USDA export inspections report showed 814,562 tonnes of US soybeans shipped in the week ended April 9. That was 1.2% above the week prior and 46.8% larger than the same week last year. The US marketing year total is now 31.51 MMT of soybeans shipped since September 1, which is 25.2% below the same period last year.
Brazil s close to now being harvested soybean crop was estimated at 179.15 MMT by CONAB, a 1.3 MMT hike from the previous number in March.
Chicago corn futures are up 1 to 3 cents/bu this morning. The corn market failed to hold onto early Monday gains after crude oil slipped back below $100/barrel, closing the day steady to a penny lower and 5 to 6 cents off the session highs. Futures are declined steeply since the mid-late March highs.
USDA weekly crop progress data indicated the US corn crop was 5% planted as of Sunday. That was a 2-percentage point move on the week and compares to 4% done on the 5-year average pace. Recent Midwest rainfall is seen as beneficial longer term for US corn.
USDA export inspections data showed US corn at 1.782 MT shipped in the week ended April 9. That was down 13.15% from last week, and 2.59% below the same week last year. US marketing year shipments since Sept 1 now total 50.23 MMT, which is up 33.9% yr/yr.
CONAB data shows the Brazilian corn crop raised by 1.3 MMT to 139.57 MMT. The second crop was hiked by 0.69 MMT to 109.12 MMT.
US wheat markets are starting higher this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are gaining a penny or two, HRW is up mostly 3 to 5 cents, while SRW wheat is a penny higher. The US wheat complex posted strength on Monday, with double digit gains across the three exchanges…spring wheat finishing the session yesterday up 10 to 13 cents.
USDA weekly crop progress data showed US winter wheat at 11% headed as of Sunday, compared to the 5-year average of 7%. Condition ratings were down 1 point to only 34% good/excellent, and down from 47% G/E at the start of the spring season in 2025 amid widespread drought in the central and southern US Plains.
USDA export inspection data tallied US wheat export shipments at 320,797 tonnes for the week ended April 9. That was 6.44% below the week prior and 47.62% below the same week last year. US marketing year exports for 2025/26 are 21.026 MMT since June 1, which is now 14.64% above the same period last year.
CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET
ICE canola futures closed narrowly mixed on Monday, as early gains faded amid a pullback in crude oil. Crude initially jumped on the breakdown of US-Iran peace talks over the weekend, and as the US said it would blockade the Strait of Hormuz. However, the strength in crude eventually cooled. Chicago soybeans and soyoil both ended lower.
May canola finished Monday up a modest $1.10 at $705.30/tonne, but November eased 70 cents lower to $717.80.
For today… canola futures are moving around $1/tonne higher this morning, though trailing back from overnight highs posted just 90 minutes ago. May canola is up $1.30 at $706.60/tonne…already trading below its 20-day moving average ($720) and now flirting with its 50-day ($704). Should be a strong sense of chart support at the psychologically important $700 level.
But chart momentum indicators currently suggest some market exhaustion of the Dec-Mar rally. Resurgent bullish momentum in world vegoil markets is required to relight the upward inertia in canola. That possible double top formation developing on CBOT soyoil price charts is a concern.
Seasonally though, April-June tends to be canola price friendly. Ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East conflict can again sway commodity markets at any time.
Stay informed with our daily market videos. Each video quickly covers key futures moves, price trends, and market signals that matter to Canadian farmers. Get clear, timely insights in just a few minutes. Bookmark https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/videos
To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/
