GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS
OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE
ICE canola futures are showing promising gains to start this morning…trading $5 to $6/tonne higher along with rising world vegoil and energy markets.
Chicago soybean futures are narrowly mixed this morning…right now trading 1 to 2 cents/bu either side of unchanged, with the nearby contracts slightly weaker.
CBOT corn futures are up around 2 cents this morning. Corn futures last week scored a bearish weekly close lower for a second week and despite being higher to start this morning are near 30 cents off the highs the market hit during the Iran war.
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AM Market Report – April 16, 2026
GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE ICE canola futures are trending $2 to $4/tonne higher so…
US wheat markets are leading rebound gains this morning…spring wheat futures up 7 to 10 cents, HRW rallying 11 to 13 cents and SRW wheat gaining mostly 9 to 10 cents.
Corn and winter wheat markets are seeing corrective bounces after hitting multi-week lows on Friday. Corn/wheat traded in tandem most of last week. Price action in corn in particular has been sensitive to talks around the ceasefire in Iran, as urea availability will have an impact on both acres and yield this crop year.
In Other News
– Trump orders blockade of Strait of Hormuz… US President Donald Trump said yesterday that the US Navy would immediately begin a blockade of ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, after Iranian ceasefire talks in Pakistan ended without an agreement or next diplomatic steps in sight. US Central Command announced that it will blockade all Iranian ports beginning Monday at 10 am ET. Iran, meanwhile, said no port in the Persian Gulf or the Sea of Oman would be safe if its ports are threatened.
The face-to-face talks in Islamabad ended early Sunday and were the highest-level negotiations between the long-time rivals since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Each side is blaming the other for the failure of the weekend talks to end six weeks of fighting that has killed thousands, roiled the global economy and sent oil prices soaring. Neither delegation indicated what will happen after the ceasefire expires on April 22. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said his country will try to facilitate a new dialogue in the coming days.
Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said “excessive” US demands had hindered reaching a deal. Other Iranian media said there was agreement on a number of issues, but the Strait of Hormuz issue and Iran’s nuclear program remain key points of difference.
– Pricier diesel to increase grain movement costs… Soaring diesel prices are driving up the costs of shipping grain. The average retail price for diesel in Canada was $2.33/litre in early April, up from $1.46 at the start of the year, according to Natural Resources Canada. That s a 60% increase. Pricey diesel is having an immediate impact on the cost of getting grain from the farm to the elevator.
When it comes to rail transportation costs, it gets more complicated, said Mark Hemmes, president of Quorum Corp., Canada s grain monitor. The country s rail shipping rates for grain are guided and regulated by the maximum revenue entitlement. At the end of every crop year, the railways are allowed to adjust their actual revenues by applying deductions such as capital investments, depreciation on rail cars and fuel costs to help ensure their revenues stay below their maximum entitlement. The upshot is that farmers will not likely experience the full impact of higher diesel prices until later in the year when those calculations are made.
Canadian growers will also be facing higher ocean freight bills in the coming months. Ship & Bunker reports that the Global 20 Ports Average rate for bunker fuel was US $957.50/tonne as of April 2, slightly more than double the Jan. 1 price of $464. You can see how that s going to have a considerable effect on what ocean freight is going to do, said Hemmes. He noted that fuel accounts for almost half of the total costs of shipping products by ocean vessel. However, farmers won t see those higher ocean freight costs for another month or so because exporters contract vessels six to 12 weeks in advance. Hemmes expects ocean freight rates to rise starting around the beginning of May when seeding is underway in Western Canada.
– Minimal change in US crop balance sheets... There was very little change in USDA s April supply/demand estimates on April 9, with the report essentially being a carbon copy of the March estimates. There was little market reaction. Some slight adjustments, but overall a nothing burger report…other than bearish-looking world wheat stats. (See next story)
Among the trio of main commodities, there were no changes to US production of soybeans, corn and wheat for the 2025-26 marketing year. As for 2025-26 US exports and ending stocks, the only differences compared to the USDA s March report were that US soybean exports were trimmed to 1.54 billion bu from 1.58 billion, and the US wheat carryover was bumped up to 938 million bu from 931 million.
However, the change in global ending stocks for wheat did push futures prices lower. Global wheat carryout rose to 283.12 MMT in the April report from 276.96 million last month. As well, world wheat production for 2025-26 was upped to 844.15 MMT, based on increased output for Argentina, the European Union and Russia.
For corn, the USDA kept Argentina and Brazil at 52 million and 132 million tonnes, respectively. Also with soybeans, with Argentina at 48 million tonnes and Brazil held at 180 million.
– Rising stocks weigh on global wheat market… World wheat markets are heading into the 2026-27 marketing year with ample supplies, as record production in 2025-26 outpaced consumption growth and pushed global ending stocks to their highest level in five years. USDA last week painted a bearish picture for the world wheat market, noting that global wheat production in 2025-26 rose 6% from the previous year, with especially large increases among major exporters. Output climbed 20% in the European Union, 51% in Argentina, and 11% in both Russia and Canada. Those larger crops, combined with only modest growth in world demand, are expected to lift global ending stocks by 9%, according to USDA s report.
Supplies available to the export market look even heavier. Stocks held by the world s largest exporters…Russia, the US, the EU, Canada, Australia, Argentina, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan…are forecast to jump 30%, reaching their highest level since 2009-10. That build-up has added pressure to wheat prices and underscored the degree of competition facing exporters.
The US is expected to hold the largest stocks among major exporters, with inventories steadily rising since 2022-23 to a 6-year high as export competition remained intense and domestic production increased over the past four years.
Other major exporters are also accumulating supplies. Russia, the world s top wheat exporter, is forecast to boost ending stocks by more than 40% on the back of a larger crop. In the European Union, production rebounded sharply from the previous year s weather-related losses to reach the largest crop in a decade, lifting stocks by more than 45% even as exports rise and imports fall. Ukraine is also expected to carry larger inventories, with reduced exports to the EU helping push stocks to their highest since the war began. Argentina, despite setting a record export forecast, is still projected to add to carryout because of its exceptionally large crop.
Outside the main exporting countries, stocks also remain burdensome. China continues to hold the world s largest wheat reserves, while India s stocks are estimated at 22 MMT, nearly triple the level seen two years ago. Together, those large inventories reinforce the view that the global wheat market is entering 2026-27 in a well-supplied, and likely still heavily competitive, position.
– Rising input costs cut Australia s canola outlook... Canola production in Australia is projected to fall to 6.2 MMT in marketing year 2026-27, a 19% decline from last-year s near-record 7.58 MMT, dampened by diesel and nitrogenous fertilizer supply constraints and price increases, according to a report from USDA s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). The war in the Middle East and subsequent interruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has caused substantial disruption for the oilseeds sector in Australia, particularly for canola producers, the FAS said.
At the time of planting for the 2026-27 crop, diesel supplies have been delayed and prices have approximately doubled, the FAS said. N fertilizer prices also have more than doubled. Among Australia s major winter crops…canola, wheat, barley and pulses…canola and wheat are the most nitrogen-intensive.
The FAS forecasts a 6.8% decline in canola planted area and a 13% reduction in the national average yield. The decline in yield reflects both a reversion from a very high average yield in 2025-26 and more conservative fertilizer application during the growing season.
Australia remains the world s second-largest canola exporter behind Canada and has accounted for roughly one-third of global trade in recent years. With production down, canola exports are seen dropping 16% to 4.7 MMT.
– Expana raises EU wheat crop forecast… Consultancy Expana raised its forecast for the European Union’s 2026/27 soft wheat harvest, citing broadly favourable growing conditions, while cutting export projections for next season due to better harvest prospects in North Africa and the Middle East. Expana slightly raised its 2026/27 EU soft wheat production forecast to 128.7 MMT from 128.6 MMT last month, though still well below the 2025/26 estimate of 137.1 MMT.
The consultancy left its 2026/27 barley forecast unchanged at 52.3 MMT, down from 57.2 MMT in 2025/26, while raising its 2026/27 corn outlook to 58.3 MMT, up from 57.9 MMT last month.
“Growing conditions for winter cereals remained mostly favourable over the course of the month,” Expana said in the report, while cautioning that rainfall deficits were emerging in northern and northeastern EU countries as of mid-spring.
The consultancy did not expect farmers to significantly cut fertilizer applications for the 2026 harvest, despite higher costs linked to the Middle East crisis and some possible cutbacks to late-season usage.
– Ukraine crop estimates cut... SovEcon, a Black Sea grains consultancy, cut its estimate of Ukraine s 2026 wheat and corn crops due to growing risks tied to fertilizer and fuel supplies. The wheat crop estimate was trimmed by 1 MMT to 23.6 MMT, while corn was cut 1.7 MMT to 28.1 MMT. Concerns over input availability sparked the revision, though planting is proceeding at a normal pace. Weather conditions remain favorable, but tighter access to fertilizers and fuel is expected to weigh on yields, the firm said, noting that a similar pattern was observed in 2022, when strong weather was offset by input shortages, resulting in lower yields.
At the same time, export forecasts for 2026/27 saw only minor tweaks, with wheat seen at 20.8 MMT (+0.5 MMT) and corn at 27.0 MMT (unchanged). Persistently weak shipments this season are leading to a buildup of stocks, which is expected to support exports next year despite a smaller crop, SovEcon said.
– Brazil looks to raise ethanol mix in gasoline to 32%… Brazil’s government wants to raise the mix of ethanol in gasoline to 32% from 30% by the end of the first semester, Energy and Mines Minister Alexandre Silveira said. Silveira said government studies on the matter should conclude within 60 days. Brazil increased the mix to 30% from 27% in August last year. A new increase would come as Brazil is seen producing a record volume of ethanol in the 2026/2027 season.
– Modest job gains for Canada s economy… The Canadian economy added a modest 14,100 jobs in March, with gains in natural resources and personal and repair services. However, the rise in employment was too small to move the jobless rate from 6.7%. The job increase marks the first employment gain of the year, as the Canadian economy continues to adjust to US tariffs.
The bleeding stopped after two consecutive monthly employment declines, but March s data continue the trend of soft labour market performance to start this year, said Marc Desormeaux, vice-president of policy and economist at the Business Council of Canada.
Average hourly wages across the country rose 4.7% year-over-year…a jump from 3.9% in February and the fastest pace since October 2024. StatCan said some of the recent increase in wages is due to the composition of employment, meaning the economy isn t adding or maintaining as many lower-paying jobs that typically pull down the wage growth average.
With the economy continuing to progress in fits and starts, and uncertainty sky-high, the outlook is for subdued job growth and a steady unemployment rate, said TD Bank senior economist Andrew Hencic.
Friday s data marks the Bank of Canada s last look at the labour market before its next interest rate decision on April 29. Financial market odds were nearly 95% in favour of a rate hold from the Bank of Canada at the end of the month, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.
– Cracks in the US economy showing… The US government s third estimate of fourth-quarter US gross domestic product last week delivered another cut, leaving economic growth at a paltry 0.5% annualized rate, down from a previous estimate of 0.7% and an initial guess of 1.4%. It marks a significant slowdown from a 4.4% annual pace in the third quarter and 3.8% in the second quarter. We have come a long way in the wrong direction in a very short time period, said economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research. The data shows the American economy was slowing sharply at the end of last year.
That weakness may have spilled over into the first quarter before the Iran war began at the end of February. The lingering effects of the US government shutdown, combined with rising energy costs through the latter part of Q1, suggest that growth may remain under pressure in the near term, although some of that lost economic activity may see a modest mechanical rebound in Q1, said Michael Hewson, senior market analyst at iForex, in a note. That presents an awkward backdrop for the US Federal Reserve, which is now faced with an economy slowing more sharply than expected, even as core inflation remains stubbornly above 3%, he wrote.
Speaking of inflation, the US core personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed s preferred measure of price pressures in America, came in at 3% year-over-year in February, matching expectations and down from 3.1% in January but well above the central bank s 2% target. Core PCE strips out volatile food and inflation prices. The headline figure was up 2.8% year over year, in line with January s reading.
“This PCE report did not yet capture the inflationary impulse from higher energy prices tied to the conflict with Iran, but tariff passthrough is written all over it, said Olu Sonola, head of US Economics at Fitch Ratings. The economist noted that the three-month trend in both core and headline inflation points to inflation running closer to 4%, even before higher energy prices add further pressure to the headline measure.
For the Fed, the combination of tariff passthrough and rising energy costs will be hard to ignore, making a further delay in rate cuts the most likely near-term outcome, Sonola said.
Outside Markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished Friday down 269.23 points at 47,916.57, and the S&P 500 was down 7.77 points at 6,816.89. Canada s S&P/TSX stock index rose 218 points to close at 33,696. Early Monday, the June Dow Jones Futures are down 357 points.
Global stock markets are weaker this morning as expectations of a swift resolution to the Middle East conflict faded following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations and Washington s decision to impose a blockade around the Strait of Hormuz.
The June US Dollar Index is up 0.271 at 98.710. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.27 US cents.
May crude oil futures are charging $7.08 higher at US $103.65/barrel. Oil prices jumped back above $100 a barrel as the US Navy prepared to block ships to and from Iran via the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could restrict Iranian oil exports, after Washington and Tehran failed to reach a deal to end the war. The announced US blockade marks an admission that the ceasefire s central premise…at least as interpreted by the US…which was the reopening of the Strait, is untenable for now, Nordic bank SEB analyst Erik Meyersson said.
Grain Markets
Chicago soybean futures are trading narrowly mixed this morning…nearby May/July futures down 1 to 2 cents/bu, while the new crop deferreds are 1 to 2 cents higher. Bean futures closed Friday s session with contracts 5 to 10 cents higher, as meal took control. Traders are working to keep the nearby May contract above the $11.50/bu support level…this morning down less than a cent at $11.75/bu.
Soymeal futures are down $1 to $2/ton this morning after charging $7 to $14/ton higher on Friday, with the May contract up $16.60 last week. Soyoil futures are 38 to 58 points higher this morning after losing 24 to 61 points on Friday, with May down 185 points last week.
WTI crude oil is rallying back above US $100/barrel this morning, as risk is being put back in the market following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations this weekend. The US is now expected to have their own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting this morning to try and cut off the flow of oil out of Iran.
USDA export sales data from Thursday had US soybean export commitments at 37.905 MMT, a 18% drop from the same period last year. Shipments at 30.52 MMT are lagging the average pace.
Anticipation/worry is building for US President Trump’s visit to China in May. Concerns of a souring situation is raising tensions between the US and China.
Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed that spec fund traders held a net-long position in CBOT soybean futures of 208,459 contracts as of April 7, a decrease of 19,387 contracts from the previous week. For soyoil, spec funds held a record net-long futures position of 148,242 contracts as of April 7, up 13,685 contracts from the previous week.
Brazil s soy harvest is at 87% done and continues to take up a big chunk of the global soybean market, especially with China. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 47% of Argentina s soybean crop is in good to excellent shape, up 2% on the week, with harvest at 2% done, a little slower than normal due to recent condition boosting rain.
Chicago corn futures are posting 2 cent/bu gains this morning. The corn market closed out Friday with contracts down 1 to 3 cents. May corn settled Friday with the weekly loss at 11 cents and crashing below all its key moving averages.
Crude oil is higher again this morning, as risk is being put back into commodity markets following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations. However, the corn market has now wiped out all of the Iran war premium and doesn t seem to care about the war anymore and is instead trading its own fundamentals. That includes too much corn, and the market was reminded of that in the April USDA report last week projecting a healthy 2.127 billion bu US corn ending stocks figure. And there may be some concern about lost demand with global customers after the war in Iran as the US is losing friends globally.
US planting weather generally looks favorable. A few things are still up in the air, including the long-term impact of drought and how high fuel and fertilizer prices might still affect US planted area, not just this year, but next year.
Friday s Commitment of Traders report showed 49,342 contracts cut from the managed money net long position in CBOT corn futures as of April 7 to 218,632 contracts.
USDA export sales data from Thursday showed 71.387 MMT of US corn export commitments for the 2025-26 marketing year so far, 30% above a year ago. Shipments are now 48.96 MMT, a 34% increase from the same period last year.
The high may be in the corn market…at least for old crop. So now the hope for a corn rally might have to wait for spring/summer weather developments.
US wheat markets are posting strong rebound gains this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are trading 7 to 10 cents higher, HRW jumping 11 to 13 cents and SRW wheat rallying 9 to 10 cents higher. The US wheat complex showed lower price action on Friday…spring wheat finishing the day down 3 to 6 cents, with the nearby May contract losing a whopping 35 cents on the week.
But higher crude oil this morning is adding risk premium back to commodity markets generally thus morning.
Commitment of Traders data showed Minnie spring wheat specs extended their record net long by 205 contracts to 20,361 contracts last week.
USDA export Sales data from Thursday has US wheat sales commitments at 24.441 MMT, a 13% increase yr/yr. That matches the USDA estimate and is in line with the average sales pace. Shipments are 20.379 MMT as of April 2, 18% above a year ago.
The trade continues to monitor rain chances for hard red winter growing areas across the US Plains. 68% of US winter wheat growing areas are in some stage of drought, and it s impacted the hard red winter crop more than the soft red winter crop. The USDA will update the US winter wheat condition rating and spring wheat planting pace in this afternoon s weekly crop progress and condition report.
CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET
ICE canola futures returned to their losing ways to end last week. Canola, which ended higher on Thursday for the first time in four sessions, posted modest losses on Friday as Chicago soyoil futures declined. Malaysian palm oil ended weaker as well, although European rapeseed was higher.
Canola futures had a choppy, headline-driven week, with the trade largely tied to crude oil and the broader vegetable oil complex. Domestic crush demand helped to act as a cushion on dips.
May canola fell $4.50 on Friday to close at $704.20/tonne, while November lost $1.20 to $718.50.
For today… canola futures are trending $5 to $6/tonne higher this morning, though slipping back from overnight highs posted a short time ago overnight. May canola futures are currently up $6.10 at $710.30/tonne…holding above the 50-day moving average support line ($703) and psychological support at $700. Remains a precarious moment technically for the canola market following last week s breakdown with the May contract falling $23/t in the last week ended Friday.
But energy markets are higher this morning, lending support to world vegoils, and in turn our canola market…an energy rally induced by the collapse of US Iran talks, boosting overall market risk appetite in the commodity sector.
Bottom line… watch soyoil for general direction for canola. Fundamentally constructive, but price action remains tied heavily to crude oil.
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