Industry insists that low production experienced in 2021 because of drought will not affect its long-term yield targets
The Canola Council of Canada believes farmers can still reach the group’s lofty 2025 yearly production goal, despite producing only half that amount in 2021.
But to reach the 2025 target of 26 million tonnes, it will take a decent year of growing conditions to see how close farmers, the industry and plant breeders have coaxed the crop toward the target.
“It is a resilient crop, but obviously the environmental conditions, the weather, needs to be there,” said council president Jim Everson.
The council’s main objectives are falling behind today because of much lower on-farm yield results. By 2025 farmers are hoped to be averaging 52 bushels per acre but fell far below that in last year’s dreadful drought-afflicted production situation.
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Canada probably only produced about 12.6 million tonnes in 2021, well below the 20 million tonne-plus crops since 2012, with some farmers getting normal yields while others harvested almost none. Average oil content fell too.
Even before 2021, yields were lagging, averaging 40-41 bu. per acre and not showing the steady gains needed to hit the 2025 targets.
However, a host of factors has hit canola crops in recent years, muddying the potential of canola crops to yield well under good conditions.
Important areas have suffered multiple years of drought, heat blasting has been a bigger problem than usual and farmers have been managing several disease issues.
“It makes for an unpredictable environment,” said Everson.
Crop breeding has marched on, producing possibly better and tougher crops, but they will need better conditions to show what they can do.
If better crops do become possible in coming years, they will find a Canadian industry and a world market hungry for every bushel.
Oilseed crushing capacity has soared in Canada with the announcement of several major projects. World demand for vegetable oils has grown, with upcoming interruptions from war-ravaged Black Sea ports encouraging buyers to obtain products from safer sources and the global market rally sending buyers scampering for coverage.
A big new force of growing demand has appeared with public and private support for biodiesel production and use. That’s one of the main factors driving the recent crushing plant announcements.
“There’s a demand signal that is pretty strong and will last for some time for canola, so it’s a real issue of how the industry is able to pull together and make sure we can increase our yields, increase our intensity of production so we can meet the demand that’s there,” said Everson.
“Canola is a low-carbon feedstock for diesel fuel. There’s market opportunity in the sustainability, carbon mitigation effort, and that’s where I think we as an industry can capitalize.”
The 2025 goals seem far away still, but many people think the crop might be there if better weather returns and farmers get a chance to produce a crop that can take advantage of everything that’s built into today’s seed.
