Canola futures fall on rising loonie

A jump higher in the value of the Canadian dollar pressured canola futures lower on Wednesday.

Rising crude oil values has support the loonie, which has risen more than three cents US over the past 30 days.

Today the Canadian dollar climbed US0.9 cent on the strength of an almost five percent increase in crude oil values.

The loonie move outweighed the positive effect from stronger soy oil futures. They rose almost two percent with support from palm oil.

Watch our weekly crop market analysis for the latest on durum, lentils and canola

Analysts at a palm conference in Malaysia again stated their expectations that the El Nino late last year caused weather stress that will lower palm production in the first half of this year.

Influential analysts Dorab Mistry said palm prices could rally to about 3,000 ringgits a tonne, up from 2,555 today, or 17 percent from current levels. Other analysts were more cautious, with forecasts near 2,700 by June 30, but Mistry, Singapore-based director with Indian consumer goods company Godrej International, said the significant negative impact of the El Nino should take prices to the higher level.

This should support all vegetable oil prices and that is good news for canola, with its large oil content.

The USDA monthly supply and demand report today slightly increased the forecast for year end American soybean supply, but cut the forecast for year end global soy, corn and wheat stocks.

The changes though were not enough to spark price moves.

Trading in American wheat, soybeans and corn is currently dominated by technical features and short covering after hitting long term lows and oversold conditions earlier this year.

Market reports have been drawing attention to dry weather in the western southern Plains but it should also be noted that the condition rating of the hard red winter wheat crop is a lot better than last year at this time and sub soil moisture is much better than in recent years.

The weather is warmer than normal, which could be a problem if it gets too hot and the rain stays away.

On the other hand, given regular spring showers, the warm weather could hasten crop development and allow an early harvest before the heat of summer sets in.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York jumped almost five percent or $1.79 to US$38.29 per barrel. U.S. crude inventories rose to a new record high, but gasoline inventory fell much more than expected, indicating strong demand.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.55 cents, up from 74.69 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3236.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2016 452.70 -3.10 -0.68%

Canola May 2016 454.70 -3.10 -0.68%

Canola Jul 2016 459.20 -3.10 -0.67%

Canola Nov 2016 465.50 -4.00 -0.85%

Canola Jan 2017 469.80 -4.50 -0.95%

Milling Wheat Mar 2016 227.00 +1.00 +0.44%

Milling Wheat May 2016 230.00 +1.00 +0.44%

Milling Wheat Jul 2016 233.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2016 288.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2016 293.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2016 281.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2016 174.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2016 176.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2016 176.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 2016 880 +2.5 +0.28%

Soybeans May 2016 885.75 +1.25 +0.14%

Soybeans Jul 2016 891.25 +1.25 +0.14%

Soybeans Aug 2016 893.5 +1.25 +0.14%

Soybeans Sep 2016 894 +1.5 +0.17%

Soybeans Nov 2016 897.25 +1.25 +0.14%

Soybean Meal Mar 2016 269.6 -1.2 -0.44%

Soybean Meal May 2016 271.3 -1.5 -0.55%

Soybean Meal Jul 2016 273.6 -1.6 -0.58%

Soybean Oil Mar 2016 31.52 +0.6 +1.94%

Soybean Oil May 2016 31.74 +0.6 +1.93%

Soybean Oil Jul 2016 31.98 +0.6 +1.91%

Corn Mar 2016 359 +0.25 +0.07%

Corn May 2016 359.5 -1 -0.28%

Corn Jul 2016 364.5 -1.25 -0.34%

Corn Sep 2016 370 -1.25 -0.34%

Corn Dec 2016 379.25 -1.25 -0.33%

Oats Mar 2016 176 -1 -0.56%

Oats May 2016 186.5 -2.25 -1.19%

Oats Jul 2016 196 -1.75 -0.88%

Oats Sep 2016 202.75 -1.25 -0.61%

Oats Dec 2016 213 -0.75 -0.35%

Wheat Mar 2016 463.75 +2.5 +0.54%

Wheat May 2016 468.25 +3 +0.64%

Wheat Jul 2016 474.75 +3 +0.64%

Wheat Sep 2016 483.75 +2.25 +0.47%

Wheat Dec 2016 497.5 +2.25 +0.45%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2016 507 +1 +0.20%

Spring Wheat May 2016 505 +1.25 +0.25%

Spring Wheat Jul 2016 513.5 +1.25 +0.24%

Spring Wheat Sep 2016 523.25 +1.25 +0.24%

Spring Wheat Dec 2016 537.75 +1.5 +0.28%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 465.25 +5 +1.09%

Hard Red Wheat May 2016 475.75 +4.75 +1.01%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 485.75 +4.75 +0.99%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 499 +4.75 +0.96%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 518.75 +4 +0.78%

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